{"id":127584,"date":"2026-07-29T09:01:57","date_gmt":"2026-07-29T09:01:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alj.com\/?post_type=perspective&p=127584"},"modified":"2026-07-29T09:01:57","modified_gmt":"2026-07-29T09:01:57","slug":"are-we-in-an-age-of-risk-or-an-era-of-opportunity","status":"publish","type":"perspective","link":"https:\/\/alj.com\/en\/perspective\/are-we-in-an-age-of-risk-or-an-era-of-opportunity\/","title":{"rendered":"Are we in an age of risk \u2013 or an era of opportunity?"},"content":{"rendered":"

The World Economic Forum\u2019s (WEF) Global Risks Report 2026<\/a>, published in January 2026, heralds the second half of what it justifiably terms a \u2018turbulent decade\u2019.[1]<\/a><\/p>\n

Back in 2020<\/a>, most people would have expected the COVID-19 pandemic to be the low point of the decade in terms of the global risk landscape.<\/p>\n

Five years later, there are a number of other issues with a justifiable claim to that dubious accolade: the sudden emergence of super-intelligent AI systems; soaring global temperatures; conflict in Ukraine; and more recently; hostilities between Israel and the USA, and Iran.<\/p>\n

\"\"Risk, it seems, is now our constant companion, the specter that threatens to undo all we have collectively achieved.<\/p>\n

And yet, through the rollercoaster events of recent history, the human narrative has endured.<\/p>\n

Somehow, amid 2026\u2019s matrix of challenges, civilization continues to function. \u00a0Factories still oil the cogs of trade and commerce.\u00a0 The global economy continues to transcend borders.\u00a0 The internet still offers a voice to billions.\u00a0 Innovation accelerates at breakneck pace.<\/p>\n

Perhaps the story of the WEF\u2019s Global Risks Report 2026 is not one of dire prognostication but a story of opportunity.\u00a0 Why?\u00a0 Because alongside awareness of risk comes preparedness, and with preparedness comes the promise of a less chaotic, more sustainable future.<\/p>\n

Context is key. So what are the global risks deemed most urgent in 2026, and how has the perception of risk has evolved from the previous 12 months?<\/p>\n

Risk rankings: What threats keep experts awake?<\/h2>\n

The Global Risks Report quantifies risk across multiple categories \u2013 economic, environmental, geopolitical, societal and technological \u2013 as highlighted by more than a thousand experts across academia, business, government, international organizations and civil society. \u00a0The top six risks believed most likely to cause material risk to global society in 2026 straddle all these sectors.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Geoeconomic confrontation, cited by 18% of respondents, is gauged the most immediate risk to the remainder of 2026, perhaps unsurprising given the combative stance taken by the Trump administration in America to tariffs and trade. \u00a0Geoeconomic confrontation is followed by state-based armed conflict (14%), extreme weather events (8%), societal polarization (7%), misinformation and disinformation (7%), and economic downturns (5%).<\/p>\n

A rather more nuanced picture emerges when the question of risk is measured in terms of severity<\/em>, over both the short term (two years) and long term (10 years).<\/p>\n

Over a two year period, chief concerns are again led by geoeconomic confrontation, followed by misinformation and disinformation, societal polarization, extreme weather events, state-based armed conflict and cyber insecurity. \u00a0For comparison, in 2025 geoeconomic confrontation ranked only ninth on the two-year list, demonstrating its rapid ascent up the global agenda.<\/p>\n

\"\"\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n

In fact, all of the \u2018highest climbers\u2019 on the two-year list are related to the world\u2019s increasingly fragile financial ecosystem.\u00a0 Joining geoeconomic confrontation among the top five rising risks are economic downturns, inflation, asset bubble bursts and disruptions to critical infrastructure.<\/p>\n

\"\"The International Monetary Fund\u2019s (IMF<\/a>) World Economic Outlook Update of January 2026 sheds some possible light on this economic pessimism.\u00a0 Several factors focus on downgraded growth expectations for the industry often hailed as our savior \u2013 artificial intelligence.[2]<\/a> \u00a0A negative reevaluation of AI\u2019s productivity, the IMF cautions, \u201ccould lead to a decline in investment and trigger an abrupt financial market correction, spreading from AI-linked companies to other segments and eroding household wealth.\u201d \u00a0Beyond overhyped AI, the IMF report also raises the possibility of trade strife and domestic or international tensions, which together could stifle financial markets, commodity prices and supply chains.<\/p>\n

Perhaps surprisingly, the perils falling furthest and fastest down the two-year risk list are clustered around a hazard many would regard as the most existential threat of all: climate change.<\/p>\n

Among the top five \u2018biggest fallers\u2019 in the WEF\u2019s two-year risk ranking are critical changes to Earth systems (down seven places), biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse (down five places) and pollution (down three places).<\/p>\n

This might at first glance seem counterintuitive, given that 2025 was again one of the hottest years in human history, continuing a run of record-setting temperatures for planet Earth.[3]<\/a> \u00a0In reality this is most likely a temporary \u2013 even misleading \u2013 anomaly.\u00a0 Climate concern has only suffered a relative<\/em> downgrade compared to soaring economic fears, the latter peaking in 2026 due to the compound threats of supply disruptions, trade tariffs and a spike in the global cost-of-living.<\/p>\n

How can we be sure? \u00a0By appraising the longer term<\/em> risk matrix, encompassed in the WEF risk report\u2019s 10-year rankings.<\/p>\n

In this list, environmental concerns reclaim their logical place at the forefront of the risk agenda. \u00a0Environmental perils dominate the list, with extreme weather events, biodiversity loss \/ ecosystem collapse, and critical changes to Earth systems occupying the top three spots respectively. \u00a0Natural resource shortages and pollution also feature in the top tier of this 10-year list.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

To explain the unwavering presence of environmental risks in the public perception, one only need pay attention to the realities of life in 2026. \u00a0Read a newspaper headline, or take a walk outside, and the evidence is abundant that global warming and environmental breakdown are the prime dangers we will be forced to navigate in the near and mid-term future.<\/p>\n

Has environmental risk moved beyond the hypothetical?<\/h2>\n

Climate data over the last 12 months has reinforced the risk posed by rising temperatures and increased human exploitation of the Earth\u2019s resources.<\/p>\n

In 2025, the global average surface temperature was 1.44o<\/sup>C above the pre-1900 average. \u00a0The past three years, 2023-2025, collectively represent the three warmest years in history across all the World Meteorological Organization\u2019s (WMO<\/a>) datasets.[4]<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Ocean temperatures in 2025 also registered among the highest ever, indicating the long-term build-up of heat within the climate system. \u00a0Annual global mean sea surface temperatures in 2025 reached 0.49\u00b0C above the 1981-2010 baseline.[5]<\/a><\/p>\n

The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA<\/a>) reported that temperature across the Arctic in 2025 were the highest in 125 years, with the region warming four times quicker than the global average.[6]<\/a> \u00a0Sea ice was the lowest ever recorded in the 47-year satellite record, with the oldest, thickest Arctic ice\u00a0falling more than 95% since the 1980s.<\/p>\n

Extreme weather<\/a> events became ominous in their frequency during 2025. \u00a0In February, eight inches of rainfall caused flash floods in the USA\u2019s Appalachian region, with rivers overflowing and landslides destroying homes, leaving 22 people dead and more than a thousand others requiring rescue.[7]<\/a><\/p>\n

Asia also endured widespread flooding<\/a>, with powerful monsoons hitting Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines and Vietnam through November and December.[8]<\/a> \u00a0More than 1,600 people lost their lives, alongside widespread infrastructure damage and mass human displacement.\u00a0 With the floods came the inevitable breakdown of sanitation systems and outbreaks of disease<\/a>. \u00a0The region was further shaken by rare cyclonic storms bringing havoc in their wake. \u00a0More than 100 tropical storms occurred worldwide in 2025, with half reaching cyclone designation.[9]<\/a><\/p>\n

The UK experienced record rainfall and flooding in 2025.\u00a0 Prolonged dry spells and accompanying heatwaves hit Europe and North America causing a spate of wildfires<\/a>. \u00a0Europe experienced its highest annual incidence of wildfires in 20 years, while in Canada annual wildfire emissions were the second-highest on record.[10]<\/a><\/p>\n

In Somalia drought-linked hunger left 4.4 million people facing food shortages in 2025, with more than 780,000 reaching critical levels.[11]<\/a> \u00a0Iran entered its sixth year of drought<\/a>, with the five main reservoirs supplying capital city Tehran only 11% full as of November.[12]<\/a><\/p>\n

As we enter 2026 there appears to be no respite in environmental stress, with scorching early-season heatwaves already threatening California and other western states of the USA.[13]<\/a><\/p>\n

Apart from the physical and emotional toll of extreme weather, climate change also carries a financial burden<\/a> the world can scarcely afford.\u00a0 By some estimates, the biggest 10 disasters of 2025 accounted for at least US$ 120 billion of insured losses.[14]<\/a><\/p>\n

For people affected by these disasters environmental decay is not just data points on a spreadsheet \u2013 it is a reality expressed in family tragedies and lost livelihoods. \u00a0\u2018Risk\u2019 for these people is more than a hypothetical future state. \u00a0It is unfolding here and now, and only threatening to grow in potency.<\/p>\n

With the environment more precariously balanced than ever, the WEF Global Risks Report 2026 includes a special investigation into potential disruption to critical infrastructure over the coming decade. \u00a0It transpires that the systems on which we rely, both natural<\/a> and manmade, are more vulnerable than at any time in history<\/p>\n

Cascading risk: What does a more dangerous future look like?<\/h2>\n

As we embark on our new, riskier future, extreme weather events and natural disasters threaten more than just short-term damage. \u00a0They jeopardize the critical infrastructure and services \u2013 the internet, energy grids, public utilities, financial markets and telecommunications \u2013 upon which we have come to depend.<\/p>\n

Offered a severity scale of one to seven, the chance of substantial disruption to critical infrastructure over the next two years was rated four or more by 53% of Global Risks Report respondents, rising to 70% over a 10 year period.[15]<\/a><\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

We could be looking, the WEF notes, at the perfect storm of risks: Ageing critical infrastructure becoming more prone to failures, with more frequent and intense meteorological phenomena overwhelming services and amplifying wider social challenges, all complicated by escalating geoeconomic rivalry.<\/p>\n

As we migrate to a more digital world we also run the risk of cascading disasters, where one event triggers a series of ripples across multiple assets, from power and water to transport and communications. \u00a0A future energy blackout, for example, might interrupt digitized networks which control water supplies, which might in turn force nuclear power plants that require water for cooling to shut down, compounding the original energy problem.<\/p>\n

A warming world carries numerous infrastructure risks. \u00a0Mass reliance on air conditioning units during hot spells, for instance, can stretch energy grids to breaking point.\u00a0 Heatwaves can cause rail tacks to buckle or road surfaces to melt. \u00a0Violent storms can wreck solar panels. \u00a0Prolonged rainfall can swamp drainage systems. \u00a0Rising levels of salination threaten to increase the cost of water treatment.<\/p>\n

And then there are droughts<\/a>, which impact more than drinking water supplies.\u00a0 Droughts can also carry severe consequences for energy grids and logistics. \u00a0China, Jordan, Iraq, Morocco and Syria are all prone to hydropower<\/a> fluctuations if river and reservoir levels fall too low. \u00a0Shipping has already been affected in the Panama Canal during the 2023-2024 drought, when larger vessels found the waterway suddenly impassable.<\/p>\n

It would be naive to believe that these fears are confined to emerging economies.\u00a0 As a result of their high technological dependence, perceptions of risk to critical infrastructure are even more pronounced in developed markets like the USA and Europe<\/a>.<\/p>\n

Against this backdrop, must we resign ourselves to a riskier and more fragile future?\u00a0 Or can we be proactive in creating a safer and more sustainable society for generations to come<\/p>\n

Can we still de-risk our world?<\/h2>\n

To mitigate these multiple and often interconnected threats, there are numerous actions we can take globally to help de-risk society and turn problems into opportunities.<\/p>\n

With so many risks emanating from climate change, we must first and foremost redouble our efforts to cut emissions and curtail global temperature rises. \u00a0Fossil fuels are responsible for more than two-thirds of all greenhouse gas emissions, so we must hasten our switch to sustainable energies, particularly wind<\/a> and solar power<\/a>.[16]<\/a><\/p>\n

Under the International Energy Agency\u2019s (IEA<\/a>) Net Zero Emissions by 2050 Scenario, the installed capacity of renewables worldwide must increase fourfold over the next decade.[17]<\/a> \u00a0By 2035 low-emission technologies must account for at least one-third of all energy consumption. \u00a0The use of sustainable fuels \u2013 liquid biofuels, biogases, low-emission hydrogen and other hydrogen-based alternatives \u2013 must quadruple by that same date. \u00a0Energy investment in the NZE Scenario must increase to around US$\u202f4.8\u202ftrillion annually over the next decade.\u00a0 This would mark a rise of around 50% from today\u2019s levels, although each dollar spent will mean savings from lower fuel prices and efficiency gains.<\/p>\n

Addressing energy and emissions is only the start. \u00a0Comprehensive global de-risking involves each stratum of society and every tool at our disposal:<\/p>\n