{"id":41988,"date":"2019-07-21T08:07:06","date_gmt":"2019-07-21T08:07:06","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.alj.com\/?post_type=perspective&#038;p=41988"},"modified":"2020-09-27T10:47:08","modified_gmt":"2020-09-27T10:47:08","slug":"developing-a-new-planning-model-for-large-water-projects","status":"publish","type":"perspective","link":"https:\/\/alj.com\/en\/perspective\/developing-a-new-planning-model-for-large-water-projects\/","title":{"rendered":"Developing a new planning model for large water projects"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><em><strong>J-WAFS\u2019 research explores how city planners can best prepare for the uncertainties of climate change.<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n<p>How can city planners and the wider water industry ensure their investment in large water infrastructure projects is put to the most effective and efficient use, particularly in resource-scarce environments?\u00a0 That\u2019s the conundrum a pioneering <a href=\"https:\/\/jwafs.mit.edu\/events\/2017IAPwatermanagement\">research<\/a> project from an Abdul Latif Jameel Water and Food Systems Lab (<a href=\"https:\/\/jwafs.mit.edu\">J-WAFS<\/a>) fellow, Dr Sarah Fletcher, has attempted to <a href=\"https:\/\/jwafs.mit.edu\/news\">solve<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignleft size-full wp-image-41989\" src=\"https:\/\/www.alj.com\/app\/uploads\/2019\/07\/Sarah-Fletcher.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"150\" height=\"170\" srcset=\"https:\/\/media.alj.com\/app\/uploads\/2019\/07\/Sarah-Fletcher.jpg 150w, https:\/\/media.alj.com\/app\/uploads\/2019\/07\/Sarah-Fletcher-132x150.jpg 132w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 150px) 100vw, 150px\" \/>Dr. Fletcher, who was supported by a Rasikbhai L. Meswani <a href=\"https:\/\/alj.com\/en\/openingdoors\/article\/inaugural-j-wafs-fellowships-support-crucial-water-security-research\/\">Fellowship for Water Solutions from J-WAFS<\/a>, has a track record of research that develops flexible water supply planning tools that help policymakers meet societal needs for water in the face of an uncertain future<a href=\"#_ftn1\" name=\"_ftnref1\">[1]<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>Her latest project, conducted with fellow MIT researcher Megan Lickley and Professor Kenneth Strzepek, could have profound effects on the industry\u2019s delivery methodology for all new large-scale projects.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"J-WAFS: the Abdul Latif Jameel Water &amp; Food Systems Lab at MIT (EN, 16:9)\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/SZVUn5clNp4?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p><strong>The challenges of infrastructure<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Large water infrastructure projects are hugely expensive. \u00a0And with most projects designed to last for several decades, in some cases even longer than 100 years, when planning these projects it is essential to consider the longer term environment in which they will operate. \u00a0Uncertainty in climate change projections, however, poses a challenge to infrastructure planning when it comes to climate change adaptation. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>The unknown nature and impact of climate change on regional temperatures and precipitation forecasts means there is now more uncertainty than ever about long-term weather projections. \u00a0Preparing for climate change by adding extra capacity, therefore, incurs high risk of expensive overbuilding in resource-scare areas. \u00a0So how can you plan a large infrastructure project to last for 50 years, while keeping the risk of overbuilding to a minimum?<\/p>\n<p>Dr. Fletcher attempted to find a solution for this by designing a new planning framework during an initial project in Mombasa, Kenya\u2019s second largest city, for the potential construction of a new dam.<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p><em>\u201cWater resources planning requires decision-making about infrastructure development under uncertainty in future regional climate conditions. \u00a0However, uncertainty in climate change projections will evolve over the 100-year lifetime of a dam as new climate observations become available<a href=\"#_ftn2\" name=\"_ftnref2\"><strong>[2]<\/strong><\/a>.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>Mombasa is facing severe water security and scarcity challenges. \u00a0By 2035, demand for water across the city is set to double, rising to 300,000m<sup>3<\/sup> per day<a href=\"#_ftn3\" name=\"_ftnref3\">[3]<\/a>. \u00a0A large share of Mombasa\u2019s current water comes from precipitation, mainly rainfall. \u00a0Yet projections for how much precipitation could form in the future vary considerably. \u00a0It is not even clear whether precipitation levels will increase or decrease if, as expected, the region warms in coming years.<\/p>\n<p>Against these circumstances, planning how to most cost-effectively construct a dam and reservoir system becomes a complex conundrum. \u00a0Should the city build an expensive large dam to help the city manage if its future climate sees a reduction in precipitation? \u00a0Should it build a less expensive smaller dam that can cope with current circumstances, but may not be fit for purpose if the climate changes significantly? \u00a0Or is it most effective to build small first, with the potential add to the construction later, despite the substantial upfront planning and additional investment this approach requires?<\/p>\n<p><strong>Delivering a new understanding<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>The planning model developed by Dr. Fletcher and her team evaluates all eventualities, comparing \u201cthe probable lifetime expenses of a flexible method with those of two irreversible, static options for the proposed Mombasa dam<a href=\"#_ftn4\" name=\"_ftnref4\">[4]<\/a>\u201d. \u00a0<\/p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>Dr. Fletcher says: \u201c<em>We found that the flexible adaptive option, which allows for the dam\u2019s height to be increased incrementally, substantially reduces the risk of overbuilding infrastructure that you don\u2019t need, and maintains a similar level of water supply reliability in comparison to having a larger dam from the get-go<\/em><a href=\"#_ftn5\" name=\"_ftnref5\">[5]<\/a>.\u201d<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n<p>The new model, Dr. Fletcher hopes, has the potential to be used in a range of different settings to evaluate the necessity of flexible approaches for water infrastructure planning. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>It is expected that city planners around the world will benefit from Dr. Fletcher\u2019s findings. \u00a0Yet it is far from the first significant advance made by researchers associated with J-WAFS. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p>Since its inception in 2014, J-WAFS has funded a series of projects with the potential to transform the future of water and food provision around the world. \u00a0These projects have ranged from low-cost water filters using <a href=\"https:\/\/alj.com\/en\/openingdoors\/article\/j-wafs-in-action-providing-safe-drinking-water-through-wood\/\">sapwood xylem<\/a>, through to research considering current issues around the scalability and efficiency of innovative water desalination processes.<\/p>\n<p><strong>Transforming Mombasa \u2013 and beyond<\/strong><\/p>\n<p>Dr. Fletcher\u2019s research in Mombasa could potentially save a considerable amount of time, effort and resources by pin-pointing the most efficient option for the dam.<\/p>\n<p>It comes at a time when the local authorities are putting a renewed emphasis on water supply. \u00a0Just up the coast from Dr. Fletcher\u2019s work is a significant investment by <a href=\"https:\/\/almarwater.com\">Almar Water Solutions<\/a>, part of <a href=\"https:\/\/www.alj.com\/en\/energy-and-environmental-services\/energy-overview\/\">Abdul Latif Jameel Energy<\/a>, which is developing a large-scale <a href=\"https:\/\/alj.com\/en\/openingdoors\/article\/almar-water-solutions-helps-tackle-kenyan-water-scarcity\/\">desalination plant<\/a>. \u00a0<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Solving a water crisis for over 1m people: Kenya&#039;s first large-scale desalination plant (EN, 16:9)\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/xMXnyJQwO-0?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>It is hoped the plant will help Mombasa to better counter its regular water crises by producing up to 100,000m<sup>3<\/sup> of water per day.\u00a0 This should help to alleviate the pressure on the city\u2019s poorest residents, two-thirds of whom have no current access to safe and affordable water<a href=\"#_ftn6\" name=\"_ftnref6\">[6]<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Shuqaiq 3 IWP desalination plant to supply fresh water to 1.8 million people (EN,16:9)\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/KITq7UXrWQE?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Abdul Latif Jameel Energy also recently confirmed plans to build a similar desalination plant in Saudi Arabia. \u00a0The <a href=\"https:\/\/alj.com\/en\/openingdoors\/article\/turning-the-taps-on-1-8m-people-in-saudi-arabia-to-benefit-from-clean-water-in-us-600m-investment\/\">Shuqaiq 3 development<\/a> is projected to begin operations in 2021 delivering 450,000m<sup>3<\/sup> of treated water per day to around two million people.<\/p>\n<p>Abdul Latif Jameel, through its funding of J-WAFS and the activities of Almar Water Solutions, is demonstrating its commitment to making a genuine global impact on the infrastructure of life, helping to provide solutions to water and food systems issues around the globe.<\/p>\n<p><img decoding=\"async\" loading=\"lazy\" class=\"alignleft wp-image-38269 size-thumbnail\" src=\"https:\/\/www.alj.com\/app\/uploads\/2019\/06\/Fady-Jameel-106x150.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"106\" height=\"150\" srcset=\"https:\/\/media.alj.com\/app\/uploads\/2019\/06\/Fady-Jameel-106x150.jpg 106w, https:\/\/media.alj.com\/app\/uploads\/2019\/06\/Fady-Jameel-211x300.jpg 211w, https:\/\/media.alj.com\/app\/uploads\/2019\/06\/Fady-Jameel-768x1092.jpg 768w, https:\/\/media.alj.com\/app\/uploads\/2019\/06\/Fady-Jameel-720x1024.jpg 720w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 106px) 100vw, 106px\" \/><a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/fady-jameel\/\">Fady M. Jameel<\/a>, Deputy President and Vice Chairman of Abdul Latif Jameel, says: <em>\u201cFrom the ground-breaking work of the Abdul Latif Jameel Water and Food Systems Lab at MIT through to the dedication and expertise of Almar Water Solutions, water is front-of-mind across our organization. Our diversified business works across the infrastructure of life and the critical role of water in all our lives goes without saying. It is key to both sustainability and population growth. Abdul Latif Jameel will continue to strive for better water solutions around the world.\u201d<\/em><\/p>\n<p><em>\u00a0<\/em><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref1\" name=\"_ftn1\">[1]<\/a> <a href=\"http:\/\/jwafs.mit.edu\/about\/people\/fellows\">People<\/a>, J-WAFS, accessed June 2019<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref2\" name=\"_ftn2\">[2]<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/s41467-019-09677-x\">Learning about climate change uncertainty enables flexible water infrastructure planning<\/a>, Nature Communications, 16 April 2019<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref3\" name=\"_ftn3\">[3]<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.azocleantech.com\/news.aspx?newsID=26243\">MIT Researchers Develop New, Systematic Approach for Designing Long-Term Water Infrastructure Amid Climate Change Uncertainty<\/a>, AZO Cleantech, 23 April 2019<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref4\" name=\"_ftn4\">[4]<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.azocleantech.com\/news.aspx?newsID=26243\">MIT Researchers Develop New, Systematic Approach for Designing Long-Term Water Infrastructure Amid Climate Change Uncertainty<\/a>, AZO Cleantech, 23 April 2019<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref5\" name=\"_ftn5\">[5]<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.azocleantech.com\/news.aspx?newsID=26243\">MIT Researchers Develop New, Systematic Approach for Designing Long-Term Water Infrastructure Amid Climate Change Uncertainty<\/a>, AZO Cleantech, 23 April 2019<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"#_ftnref6\" name=\"_ftn6\">[6]<\/a> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.wsup.com\/where-we-work\/\">Mombasa: Supporting the utility to provide services to low-income communities<\/a>, WSUP, accessed June 2019<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":18,"featured_media":42000,"template":"","tags":[],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v21.5 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>New Planning Model for Large Water Projects | Abdul Latif Jameel\u00ae<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Abdul Latif Jameel, through its funding of 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