Here\u2019s just one.\u00a0 At a cursory glance, the impact of the virus appears to have paid the environment some unique favors.<\/p>\n
During this time, as industry around the world has fallen silent and people have remained at home, hence energy demand has fallen sharply \u2013 down 6% year on year[1]<\/a>.\u00a0 This is predicted to translate to a fall in CO2<\/sub> levels of between 4%-8% this year, equivalent to 2-3 billion tons of greenhouse gases[2]<\/a>.<\/p>\n With transportation typically accounting for almost a quarter of global emissions (and with much of the World existing in varying degrees of lockdown) the biggest single contributor to this pollution decline is, unsurprisingly, curtailed mobility.<\/p>\n Data from the International Energy Agency (IEA<\/a>) suggests road transport can claim much of the credit, dipping by almost half, globally, to the end of March[3]<\/a>.\u00a0 During this period, researchers from Colombia University in the United States observed a 10% fall in carbon dioxide and a 50% drop in carbon monoxide in New York alone[4]<\/a>.\u00a0 That same month, road miles travelled in the UK fell to levels not seen since the mid-1950s[5]<\/a>.\u00a0 In cities across the world, a combination of legal restrictions and public apprehension saw journeys fall to a fraction of the norm.<\/p>\n Air travel has likewise slumped.\u00a0 The IEA foresees flight passenger numbers declining by two-thirds in Q2 2020, then by 40% in Q3 and 10% in Q4, with demand for jet fuel and kerosene falling some 26% over the year as a whole[6]<\/a>.<\/p>\n These statistics might make sour reading for those working in the transport or fossil fuel industries, but for the rest of the World they mean benefits evident even on the briefest of strolls.\u00a0 Roads noticeably emptier of cars, skies free of planes, rail tracks conveying mere skeleton services. \u00a0Bicycle sales doubled in the United States in March compared to the same period last year[7]<\/a>.\u00a0 Elsewhere, waterways are running visibly clearer and wildlife is padding its paws into areas typically dominated by humans.\u00a0 Effects are tangible even from space, with satellites observing toxic clouds dissipating across multiple continents, from America to Europe to China[8]<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n To spot the difference, maybe all you need do is draw a deep breath \u2013 a YouGov survey for the UK\u2019s Guardian newspaper had two-thirds of respondents reporting cleaner, fresher air during lockdown[9]<\/a>.<\/p>\n So, surely it is a time to celebrate?\u00a0 With sufficient political and popular willpower, pollution trends can apparently be reversed in a matter of months.\u00a0 We all just need to be less mobile.\u00a0 Simple.\u00a0 Except \u2026 consider precedent.<\/p>\n There are several reasons why it would be foolhardy to drop our guard and slide into complacency.\u00a0 The World has undergone turmoil before (albeit with a different catalyst) and in the relatively recent past.\u00a0 The 2008 economic crisis, sparked by the bursting of the United States housing bubble and subsequent subprime mortgage crisis, cost global economies trillions of dollars.\u00a0 Then, as now, businesses closed, redundancies snow-balled and consumer spending plunged.\u00a0\u00a0 Vehicle sales crashed.\u00a0 Transatlantic air travel fell by 15%[10]<\/a>.<\/p>\n However, the 1.4% carbon emissions drop in 2009 following the recession was ultimately offset by an almost 6% rise the following year.\u00a0 The environmental benefits, according to the Global Carbon Project<\/a>, were short-lived \u201cowing to strong emissions growth in emerging economies, a return to emissions growth in developed economies, and an increase in the fossil-fuel intensity of the world economy\u201d<\/em>.[11]<\/a><\/p>\n It has happened before; it can happen again.<\/p>\n There are further signs that a cut in mobility pollution cannot be taken for granted.<\/p>\n As global lockdowns gradually ease, there is already evidence of road traffic recovering \u2013 even surging.\u00a0<\/p>\n As crowds steer clear of potential infection hotspots like buses and trains (with measures such as face-masks and compulsory health checks for passengers) China has actually seen vehicle use increase during the pandemic.<\/p>\n The proportion of journeys undertaken by private car has almost doubled, from 34% before the lockdown to 66% afterwards[12]<\/a>.\u00a0 At the same time, bus\/metro use has slipped from 56% to 24%.\u00a0 In a survey by market research giant Ipsos, almost three-quarters of Chinese respondents said they were more likely to buy a new car in the aftermath of the virus.<\/p>\n A similar picture is emerging in Stockholm, Sweden, while in London, UK, car usage rebounded to 78% of normal levels in June, having fallen to 50% in March[13]<\/a>.<\/p>\n Another problem exists at the level of infrastructure \u2013 nowhere more so than the United States.\u00a0 Map data shows many American communities simply aren\u2019t designed for walking, lacking sidewalks entirely, despite good evidence that walkable communities with lower air pollution help safeguard against chronic conditions[14]<\/a>.\u00a0 Even in the UK, more than two-thirds (around 70%) of UK pavements are less than three meters wide, making social distancing difficult if one pedestrian wishes to pass another[15]<\/a>.<\/p>\n So, if the vision of a clean-aired, car-free utopia remains largely hypothetical at present, what is <\/em>the likely post-pandemic future of mobility, and what can we do to ensure it benefits the maximum number of people?<\/p>\n While some countries will doubtless loosen regulations around car manufacturing to support struggling automobile industries, others will grasp the opportunity to capitalize on greener alternatives.<\/p>\n As a snapshot:<\/p>\n Globally, if impacts on pollution and accident rates are as positive as expected, many of these urban mobility tweaks could, and perhaps should, remain in place once the pandemic passes \u2013 and they can gradually inspire wholesale redesigns of the urban transport landscape.<\/p>\n In Europe, for example, city officials from four different countries (Bonn in Germany, Brussels in Belgium, Dublin in Ireland and Milan in Italy) have urged the European Commission to establish a grant scheme for zero-emission buses as part of the EU\u2019s recovery strategy.<\/p>\n The \u20ac 3.5 billion fund they are proposing would encourage a public transport resurgence among the cities\u2019 combined 7.5 million inhabitants and, accordingly, ensure cleaner air for all[21]<\/a>.<\/p>\n They could well look to Gothenburg for inspiration. \u00a0Sweden\u2019s second-largest city is at the vanguard of the green transport wave, already boasting a climate-certified international airport, a zero-emission tram network and more than 1,000 public rental bikes.[22]<\/a> \u00a0Later in 2020, 157 new electric buses will take to the city\u2019s street, bringing the fleet total to 220, supported by a network of 19 charge stations.[23]<\/a> \u00a0Now crowned a\u00a0European Capital of Smart Tourism 2020<\/a>\u00a0by the European Commission, its transformation is all the more impressive considering in the mid-1980s the former industrial port town was branded a \u201ca courtyard to hell\u201d by Sweden\u2019s own environment minister, inspiring its green resurgence. \u00a0Presently, 65% of Gothenburg\u2019s public transport runs on renewable energy, with a plan to make it fully electric by 2030. [24]<\/a><\/p>\n If more cities are to board the public transport bandwagon, operators must consider how to tempt back apprehensive commuters.\u00a0 At the very least, public transport will require new seating configurations and strict passenger limits.\u00a0 Streamlining the flow of people might even entail building new stations and stops.<\/p>\n And that\u2019s not all.\u00a0 We\u2019ll also need technology, innovation and most importantly, vision.<\/p>\n In pursuit of safer and more sustainable mobility, we\u2019re destined to embrace a smarter public transport regime.\u00a0<\/p>\n Operators worldwide are exploring a range of immediate tactics, from contactless payment to online pre-booking.\u00a0 Even when coronavirus is safely in the rear-view mirror, these modifications are likely to stay part of the picture.<\/p>\n Apps are already in the pipeline designed to decongest public transport, specifically by diverting would-be travelers to quieter platforms and vehicles[25]<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n From a transport provider\u2019s perspective, passenger-flow monitors could be used to re-route buses in response to varying demand.\u00a0<\/p>\n In fact, such technology already exists, with China deploying it, even before the pandemic, to regulate road traffic.<\/p>\n Further innovations in the field are inevitable.\u00a0 Many governments will be closely watching the example of Helsinki, Finland, which even before the crisis hit was rolling out a project to render car ownership obsolete by 2025.\u00a0<\/p>\n Its innovative mobility as a service<\/a> (MaaS) initiative uses an app called Whim<\/a>, which unites the city\u2019s various transport options \u2013 ferries, buses, trains, carpools, shared bikes and taxis \u2013 into a streamlined single-schedule, single-payment system[26]<\/a>.\u00a0 Helsinki is five years away from its self-imposed deadline, but already cars are reportedly losing their profiles as status symbols among the urban youth[27]<\/a>.<\/p>\n All this \u2018smart\u2019 thinking means that digitization and connectivity will be central to our future mobility.\u00a0 And this is just the beginning.<\/p>\n Remember the term \u2018micromobility\u2019 \u2013 it\u2019s one you\u2019ll be hearing much more of in the future.\u00a0 That\u2019s the name we give to devices such as electric scooters and e-bikes, both of which are ticking a lot of desirability boxes right now, allowing speedy point-to-point travel with necessary social distancing.<\/p>\n China\u2019s dockless bike-share system, Mobike claims to have doubled access to jobs, education and healthcare among traditionally underserved communities[28]<\/a>.\u00a0 American scooter-sharing firm Bird, meanwhile, achieved 10 million rides in its first year (2017-2018) in Southern California. \u00a0Over a similar timeframe, rival Lime hit 34 million trips via its fleet of scooters, electric\/pedal-assist bikes and car-shares.\u00a0<\/p>\n Globally, minds are opening to the benefits of electric scooters. Illegal until now on UK streets, local authorities were given permission to begin trialing battery-powered rental scooters from July 4 this year.\u00a0 Initially only over-16s with driving licenses will be permitted to hire the devices, but if the year-long experiment proves a success, more hire scooters will soon be weaving through the public space, and operators such as Lime, Bird, Voi, Wind, Tier, Circ and Dott will be vying to provide them.[29]<\/a><\/p>\n Half the world\u2019s population now lives in urban areas, likely increasing to two-thirds by 2050.\u00a0 Surely, therefore, the move to micromobility should be one-way traffic?<\/p>\n And yet, we shouldn\u2019t expect<\/em> the revolution to be smooth.\u00a0 Many of the start-ups propelling the micromobility revolution have suffered disproportionately during the global lockdown.\u00a0 Several hundred employees of Bird, almost a third of its workforce, were let go in April this year.\u00a0 Lime, and Swedish scooter firm Voi, have also laid off staff as potential customers have been compelled to remain at home[30]<\/a>.<\/p>\n Securing new funding in a post-pandemic world may yet help this nascent industry thrive, as people prioritize private (read: germ-free) mobility.<\/p>\n As scientists accept that air pollution is making the pandemic more deadly[31]<\/a>, electric vehicles (EVs) should continue their upward trajectory, although adoption rates may vary around the world.\u00a0<\/p>\n In France and the UK, governments will outlaw new petrol and diesel cars from 2040[32]<\/a>.\u00a0 Denmark is targeting 2030.\u00a0 Mayors of Paris, Madrid, Mexico City and Athens are banning diesel vehicles even sooner \u2013 by 2025.\u00a0<\/p>\n Management consultancy McKinsey & Co. may prove correct, therefore, in forecasting that Europe and China (with ready investment and regulatory support) could lead the EV charge, while the United States (with low oil prices and a slackening of emissions laws) could lag behind[33]<\/a>.\u00a0 This would be a shame, since America\u2019s EV trend has so far been encouraging, with 2018 sales up 81% on 2017, accounting for more than 1,180,000 EVs on the road by March 2019[34]<\/a>.<\/p>\n Globally, the number of plug-in electric vehicles passed 7.5 million by the end of 2019, including light commercial vehicles. Medium and heavy commercial vehicles add another 700,000 units to the total[35]<\/a>. Europe led the charge, with growth of 44% over 2018, although a slowdown in EV sales in the United States and China meant overall global growth was lower, at 9% year on year. Nevertheless, by 2030 the IEA expects EVs to comprise 15% of the global fleet[36]<\/a>.<\/p>\n Giant leaps forward are being made in one of the traditional stumbling blocks of EV ownership \u2013 battery storage. \u00a0EVs have traditionally struggled to overcome the dual problems of limited ranges and lengthy recharge times.\u00a0 Fortunately, as discussed in a previous Abdul Latif Jameel Perspectives article<\/a>, emerging battery technology could help consign such issues to the past.\u00a0<\/p>\n Revolutionary lithium-ion batteries are proving groundbreaking, being high energy, low cost and long life.\u00a0 Price-wise, battery costs are expected to plunge in cost due to demand, dropping from US$ 176 kWh in 2019 to US$ 62 kWh by 2030[37]<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n As for charge times, researchers at Pennsylvania State University are currently developing technology that could allow 200 miles of charge in just ten minutes \u2013 down from a more typical eight hours[38]<\/a>.<\/p>\n So, the future of mobility is clearly electric.\u00a0 But exactly how mobile do we intend to be?<\/p>\n Presently, commerce motivates many of the journeys we undertake.\u00a0 In our millions we travel to and from offices daily.\u00a0 We fly across the world to hold business meetings.\u00a0 We buy, sell and negotiate in person.<\/p>\n Or at least, we did.<\/p>\n![\"Global](\"https:\/\/www.alj.com\/app\/uploads\/2020\/07\/MB-1.png\")
<\/p>\n![\"Evolution](\"https:\/\/www.alj.com\/app\/uploads\/2020\/07\/MB2-scaled.jpg\")
<\/p>\n![\"Emissions](\"https:\/\/www.alj.com\/app\/uploads\/2020\/07\/MB-3.png\")
Caution over magic bullet solution<\/h2>\n
![\"Growth](\"https:\/\/www.alj.com\/app\/uploads\/2020\/07\/MB4-scaled.jpg\")
<\/p>\n![\"Social](\"https:\/\/www.alj.com\/app\/uploads\/2020\/07\/MB5-scaled.jpg\")
<\/p>\nSeizing the moment to help green<\/em> gain traction<\/h2>\n
\n
Developing a smarter future<\/h2>\n
A model for Micromobility<\/h2>\n
![\"Model](\"https:\/\/www.alj.com\/app\/uploads\/2020\/07\/MB6-scaled.jpg\")
<\/p>\n![\"Global](\"https:\/\/www.alj.com\/app\/uploads\/2020\/07\/MB7-scaled.jpg\")
<\/p>\n![\"Decreasing](\"https:\/\/www.alj.com\/app\/uploads\/2020\/07\/MB8.png\")
<\/p>\nBusiness and tourism travel nosedive<\/h2>\n