{"id":97765,"date":"2022-04-27T05:50:43","date_gmt":"2022-04-27T05:50:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alj.com\/?post_type=perspective&p=97765"},"modified":"2022-08-09T10:53:48","modified_gmt":"2022-08-09T10:53:48","slug":"how-inequality-threatens-a-riskier-world","status":"publish","type":"perspective","link":"https:\/\/alj.com\/en\/perspective\/how-inequality-threatens-a-riskier-world\/","title":{"rendered":"How inequality threatens a riskier world"},"content":{"rendered":"

Modern life can sometimes feel like an endless negotiation with jeopardy. \u00a0In 2022, we seem addicted to collectively running the gauntlet of risk \u2013 the risk of environmental collapse, the risk of contracting a deadly virus, the risk of nationalistic border strife spiraling out of control. \u00a0<\/p>\n

Yet, for most of us, such fears remain hypothetical, or of uncertain timescale, or unnecessarily inflated by trending headlines and media hype. \u00a0So, what about the real<\/em> world of risk? \u00a0What are the clear and present dangers forecast by the experts \u2013 by those people in charge of steering businesses and governments towards risk mitigation?<\/p>\n

What, according to them, are the most critical hazards looming on our shared horizon, and what actions should we be taking now to offset their potential harm?<\/p>\n

The World Economic Forum (WEF<\/a>) publishes an annual risks report, surveying governments, academics, businesses and NGOs around the world on the most profound challenges facing humanity and global society.<\/p>\n

\"WEFIts 2022 Global Risks Report<\/a>, published in February 2022, describes a world facing unprecedented stresses on issues scarcely imagined a generation ago. \u00a0<\/p>\n

A world too often pulling in different directions and threatening to cause irreparable self-harm. \u00a0A world valiantly striving to survive its infancy and embrace some kind of stable maturity.<\/p>\n

While a chief concern among risk experts remains climate change \u2013 the cloud threatening to eclipse us all \u2013 it is impossible to overlook that as a civilization we are still emerging, shaken and bruised, from the ravages of COVID-19. \u00a0<\/p>\n

And our current recovery trajectory exposes many of the fault lines in today\u2019s interconnected global civilization.<\/p>\n

In 2022, it is not so much the viral weaponry of COVID-19 that levies the greatest global threat, nor even the lengthening shadows of inter-state conflict.\u00a0 Rather, it is the societal pressures imposed by issues such as vaccine inequality (and more widely access to basic healthcare) and divergent economic recoveries.<\/p>\n

As the WEF notes, in the poorest 52 countries, home to one-fifth of the global population, only 6% of people are presently vaccinated. \u00a0Compare that to the 70%+ rates achieved by 50 of the wealthiest countries.<\/p>\n

\"Global
The developing \u2018Global South\u2019: visual depiction of the north\u2013south divide, proposed by West German former Chancellor Willy Brandt in the 1980s in the report titled ‘North-South: A Programme for Survival’ which was later known as the ‘Brandt Report’. (Image credit \u00a9 Jovan.Gec).<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

The ramifications are inevitable. \u00a0By 2024, developing economies will lag 5.5% behind their pre-pandemic GDP growth, just as advanced economies exceed theirs by 0.9%. \u00a0Over the next five years, the survey reflects widespread concern at this growing income gap creating tensions \u201cwithin and across borders\u201d, threatening the erosion of social cohesion and fostering a long-term livelihood crises.<\/p>\n

At the human scale COVID-19 was responsible for 53 million cases of major depression worldwide, prompting mental health deterioration to be identified as one of the risks to have escalated most sharply during the pandemic.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

To these woes, respondents to the WEF survey highlight a growing debt crisis, failings in cybersecurity and a pervasive public backlash against science, compounded by ever greater digital inequality.<\/p>\n

Just 16% of those surveyed feel positive or optimistic about the global outlook, with most instead predicting the immediate future to be characterized by either \u201cconsistent volatility and multiple surprises or fractured trajectories that will separate relative winners and losers\u201d.<\/p>\n

Inevitably, such disparities jeopardize our attempts at a coordinated defense against the most ominous of existential threats: climate change.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

Environment dominates global fears<\/h2>\n

Peering through our current pandemic-influenced myopia, the WEF survey proves that the climate crisis still dominates the realm of long-term threats.<\/p>\n

The top five risks deemed most pressing over the next decade are all environment-related, as are the top three when gauged by severity \u2013 a sobering collision of likelihood and menace, as a deeper dive into the responses show.<\/p>\n

In the coming five to 10 years the top risks, those gauged most likely to manifest, center on:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Climate action failure \u2013 42.1%<\/li>\n
  2. Extreme weather \u2013 32.4%<\/li>\n
  3. Biodiversity loss \u2013 27%<\/li>\n
  4. Natural resource crises \u2013 23%<\/li>\n
  5. Human environmental damage \u2013 21.7%<\/li>\n
  6. Social cohesion erosion \u2013 19.1%<\/li>\n
  7. Involuntary migration \u2013 15%<\/li>\n
  8. Adverse tech advances \u2013 14.9%<\/li>\n
  9. Geo-economic confrontations \u2013 14.1%<\/li>\n
  10. Geopolitical resource contestation \u2013 13.5%<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n

    Climate action failure, extreme weather and biodiversity loss likewise occupy the top three positions in terms of predicted severity \u2013 with human environmental damage and natural resource crises also highly cited.<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

    Indifferent to the capricious nature of COVID-19, immune to any conflict in Eastern Europe, the climate crisis continues its relentless pursuit of our way of life.<\/p>\n

    The number of extreme weather disasters causing in excess of US$ 1.5 billion damage reached double figures in 2021. \u00a0Hurricane Ida hit the USA in August, resulting in the deaths of 95 people. \u00a0Storms across Europe in July claimed 240 lives and saw widespread flooding in Germany, France and other countries. \u00a0Floods in South Sudan left 800,000 homeless, while a further 200,000 were displaced by a cyclone affecting India, Sri Lanka and the Maldives.[1]<\/a><\/p>\n

    \"SirLast year\u2019s COP26 climate conference<\/a> in Glasgow, UK, undeniably made some headway in securing fresh global environmental commitments: 46 countries switching to clean power by 2040; India targeting 50% renewable energy by 2030; and 141 countries deciding to phase out deforestation by 2030.<\/p>\n

    And yet, as the WEF notes, even these pledges if enacted will fall short of the 2016 Paris Climate Agreement\u2019s goal of no more than a 1.5o<\/sup>C global temperature rise \u2013 with 1.8o<\/sup>C the most optimistic scenario under current pathways. \u00a0<\/p>\n

    Further, the UK, EU and USA stalled on a formal climate finance package for developing countries. \u00a0China and India, meanwhile, ensured that coal use was only to be phased down, rather than phased out, in the final approved draft of the commitment.<\/p>\n

    \"World<\/p>\n

    Any nation-first policy reprioritizations in the aftermath of COVID-19 could see global commitments slide further in the interest of short-term economic pragmatism.<\/p>\n

    Tellingly, despite factory and transport shutdowns preempting a temporary fall in pollution emissions, the risk status of climate action failure was actually judged to have worsened by 25% since the start of the pandemic.<\/p>\n

    \"\"<\/p>\n

    Indeed, even as public perception of global warming continues to rise, 2020 saw more than 50 developed and emerging economies committing a further US$ 345 billion to fossil fuel subsidies.<\/p>\n

    Climate mitigation, the WEF states, must be embraced with urgency, before feedback loops trigger environmental tipping points and the decarbonization drive becomes too little, too late.<\/p>\n

    The cost of failing to act<\/a> \u2013 of climate inaction \u2013 is steep, with losses predicted anywhere from 4% to 18% of global GDP by 2050.<\/p>\n

    Due to the societal, economic and technological challenges of reaching a net zero world<\/a>, the WEF classifies the likely transition as \u2018disorderly\u2019. \u00a0To prevent divided societies and ideological fault lines between countries, it urges governments, businesses and citizens to agree on a common balance between policy commitments, financial incentives, regulations and immediate needs.<\/p>\n

    Our major ally in the struggle against climate change? \u00a0Awareness.<\/p>\n

    Fighting back against erratic power of risk<\/h2>\n

    If risk has an upside, it is this: once something is identified, it can be prepared for.<\/p>\n

    Already the WEF sees a raft of initiatives and trends under way which offer hope to environmental forecasters.<\/p>\n