{"id":118063,"date":"2024-09-03T10:23:42","date_gmt":"2024-09-03T10:23:42","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alj.com\/?post_type=spotlight-fadyjameel&p=118063"},"modified":"2025-04-03T06:15:44","modified_gmt":"2025-04-03T06:15:44","slug":"africa-climate-crisis-an-existential-threat","status":"publish","type":"spotlight-fadyjameel","link":"https:\/\/alj.com\/en\/spotlight-by-fady-jameel\/africa-climate-crisis-an-existential-threat\/","title":{"rendered":"Africa: climate crisis an existential threat"},"content":{"rendered":"

Nowhere in the world will prove immune from the ravages of climate change<\/a>.<\/p>\n

From outbreaks of heatwaves and wildfires<\/a> in Europe[1]<\/a>, to biodiversity crises in the Amazon[2]<\/a>, to the inundation by seawater of numerous island groups<\/a> in the Pacific and Indian oceans[3]<\/a>, all societies will face harsh choices in the struggle to survive the looming environmental transition.<\/p>\n

However, global warming is saving its cruelest consequences for an area of the world already blighted by inequality, deprivation and conflict \u2013 Africa.<\/p>\n

Africa, home to 54 countries and more than a billion people, has a troubled heritage. \u00a0Arid conditions and high temperatures have long acted as a cauldron for drought and starvation, with tens of millions perishing over recent decades. \u00a0Against this backdrop, civil unrest and cross-border strife have further imperiled an already beleaguered populace.<\/p>\n

Even though the worst impacts of climate change have not yet been fully felt, Africa is already in the grip of multiple humanitarian disasters.<\/p>\n

The Horn of Africa, around Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, is currently mired in its most serious drought in 40 years. \u00a0Five years of rainfall deprivation have affected 50 million people, 20 million of whom face possible famine.[4]<\/a> \u00a0Shockingly, more than 20% of people living in Africa are classed as undernourished.[5]<\/a><\/p>\n

Such a hot, dry climate has left ground vegetation highly combustible, with Algeria and Tunisia far from alone in experiencing heat-fueled wildfires throughout 2022.<\/p>\n

Cyclones have exacted a severe toll too. \u00a0The southern African region weathered a series of relentless tropical storms in 2022 causing mass displacement and humanitarian suffering, especially on the island of Madagascar.<\/p>\n

Off the coast, sea level rises have been equally ominous. \u00a0Along the Red Sea and the western Indian Ocean, sea levels have been rising 3.7mm per year and 3.6mm per year respectively, exceeding the annual global mean rise of 3.4mm.[6]<\/a><\/p>\n

Worse may yet lie ahead. \u00a0The challenging scenario across Africa is likely to decline further in the coming years, particularly with the continent in the grip of climate change.<\/p>\n

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Temperatures rising further \u2013 and faster \u2013 than anywhere else<\/h2>\n

With its location and topography, Africa is highly vulnerable to the symptoms of global warming.\u00a0 Temperatures<\/a> here are likely to continue rising further and faster than elsewhere in the world.<\/p>\n

From 1991 to 2022, Africa warmed at an average of 0.3o<\/sup>C per decade, a more rapid increase than the average 0.2o<\/sup>C per decade the continent experienced from 1961 to 1990.[7]<\/a> \u00a0By 2040, Africa\u2019s \u2018fragile states\u2019 (those noted for weak governance, social tensions, humanitarian crises and armed conflict), from the Central African Republic to Somalia and Sudan, could be enduring 60 or more days per year of stifling 35o<\/sup>C+ temperatures \u2013 four times more than non-fragile states.[8]<\/a><\/p>\n

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At the same time, rainfall patterns are likely to become even more unpredictable. \u00a0What this means for people on the ground is truly existential: Extreme weather catastrophes<\/a>, crop failures, loss of livelihoods and accelerated desertification<\/a>.<\/p>\n

In most developed nations, global warming means more expensive bills, less choice at the supermarket and perhaps interrupted vacations. \u00a0For people living in Africa, global warming could mean the difference between life and death.<\/p>\n

What does the future hold for this vulnerable region of the world? \u00a0Is Africa doomed to suffer eternally as the global climate continues to degrade \u2013 or could salvation await via policy, technology and investment initiatives? \u00a0Addressing the unique vulnerability of this vast, complex continent to the menace of climate change will demand an upsurge in empathy and understanding.<\/p>\n

Hundred million suffering in climate change crisis<\/h2>\n

Africa\u2019s climate woes are nothing if not unjust. \u00a0Combined, all African countries account for just 3.8% of global greenhouse gases annually, compared to China (23%), the USA (19%) and the European Union (EU) (13%).[9]<\/a> \u00a0Similarly, carbon dioxide emissions per head are just 1.04 metric tons per year, far less than the global average of 4.69 metric tons.[10]<\/a><\/p>\n

Despite this relative lack of culpability, the World Meteorological Organization<\/a> highlights six areas of concern in the continent\u2019s near and middle-term future.<\/p>\n

These include the accelerating rate of temperature increase; falling agricultural productivity<\/a>; extreme weather exacerbating issues around food security, displacement and conflict; a lack of adaptation funding; the rising cost of losses and damages; and inadequate early warning systems.<\/p>\n

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Heatwaves, floods, cyclones and droughts are devastating whenever and wherever they occur. \u00a0However, this is particularly true in an economically challenged part of the world such as Africa, with an average GDP per head of just over US$ 2,000 as of 2023.[11]<\/a> \u00a0In Africa, the disaster response framework is underdeveloped. \u00a0Outdated sanitation allows disease to flourish, and hunger can segue into starvation with only the smallest of nudges.<\/p>\n

For many civilians it is a matter of survival.<\/p>\n

Figures show more than a hundred million people living in Africa were impacted by climate hazards in 2022, including 5,000 deaths due to droughts and floods. \u00a0The actual figures are likely to be considerably higher, due to the difficulty of compiling statistics across a vast terrain with unreliable communications.<\/p>\n

Apart from the human toll of climate change, conservative estimates also showed more than US$ 8.5 billion of financial damage incurred in 2022 \u2013 a crippling blow in a region whose economy already lags behind much of the developed world.<\/p>\n

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Farming<\/a> is a lifeline for many African families and economies, occupying more than half of the entire labor force in sub-Saharan Africa. \u00a0Yet climate change has seen agricultural productivity decline by around a third since 1961.[12]<\/a> \u00a0This marks a steeper fall than any other region in the world, and means Africa has had to triple the amount of food it imports annually to sustain its population.[13]<\/a> \u00a0Only 3% of Africa\u2019s cultivated areas have been irrigated with canals or reservoirs, leaving crops exposed to the ravages of floods and drought.[14]<\/a> \u00a0Lack of maintenance funding can condemn any irrigation schemes that do exist to disrepair. \u00a0Sudan\u2019s Gezira irrigation network, for instance, now covers less than half the 8,000km2<\/sup> area it once occupied. \u00a0In some scenarios, climate change by 2060 could force an extra 50 million people in Africa\u2019s fragile states into hunger.[15]<\/a><\/p>\n

UNECA\u2019s African Climate Policy Centre aims to quantify the economic impact of climate-driven losses and damages. \u00a0It estimates a US$ 290 billion to US$ 440 billion bill for Africa, depending on the severity of warming that ultimately transpires.<\/p>\n

Africa\u2019s capacity to survive the climate transition will require support from international partners. \u00a0In the interests of maintaining a strong and stable world, helping Africa to avoid the specters of hunger, war and mass migration must become a global mission.<\/p>\n

Self-sufficiency pivotal to long-lasting solutions<\/h2>\n

Just imagine what Africa could achieve if it was able to unlock<\/a> the potential of its enviable resources: Not just near limitless energy, but near limitless clean <\/em>energy. \u00a0The sun-baked continent, after all, is bestowed with more than half of all the world\u2019s solar potential; however, across the entire continent, total installed capacity is equivalent to just a small European country.[16]<\/a><\/p>\n

Unleashing solar power across Africa, along with other sustainable sources like wind, hydro and geothermal<\/a> energy, would bring unparallelled benefits \u2013 not just a cleaner environment better able to survive the climate crisis, but more jobs, greater prosperity, improved health, and more equality in all layers of society.<\/p>\n

The UN\u2019s Sustainable Development Goal<\/a> to ensure universal energy access by 2030 must seem like a distant fantasy in Africa, where the capital costs of new energy projects are two to three times higher than in mature economies.[17]<\/a> \u00a0This quandary means hundreds of millions of people lack electricity, severely limiting prospects for their education and employment.<\/p>\n

Now is the time to bankroll a mass rollout of renewable energy choices across Africa. \u00a0According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), green electricity is set to become cheaper than fossil-based alternatives in Africa by 2030.[18]<\/a><\/p>\n

However progress remains slow, with only around 3% of global energy investments currently centered on Africa.[19]<\/a> \u00a0Changing this paradigm will require bold moves from both public and private sectors.<\/p>\n

Major global financial institutions are trying to catalyze progress, effectively de-risking investments from the private sector and laying the foundations for long-lasting economic growth. \u00a0Homes and industries need reliable power supplies to flourish. \u00a0Depending on location, some of these needs will be met by robust power grids in the heart of communities; elsewhere, solar and battery arrays could support off-grid systems in more remote areas.<\/p>\n

The international community knows that the best way to support Africa is by helping it become economically self-sufficient. \u00a0That means empowering its people to establish a solid industrial base and manufacturing capacity. \u00a0Public sector investment would likely provide exceptional value for money \u2013 some figures suggest US$ 28 billion of concessional capital from development agencies would unlock more than three times that amount in private funding.[20]<\/a><\/p>\n

Seizing the initiative, the IEA\u2019s new \u2018Financing Clean Energy in Africa\u2019<\/a> report calls for a doubling of energy investments in Africa by the end of the decade, to more than US$ 200 billion per year. \u00a0Its analysis examines how to achieve this dramatic boost in investment and ultimately reduce the cost of financing clean energy altogether.<\/p>\n

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The IEA\u2019s solutions for sustainable investment in Africa include:<\/p>\n