{"id":54790,"date":"2019-12-08T07:00:15","date_gmt":"2019-12-08T07:00:15","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.alj.com\/?post_type=spotlight-fadyjameel&p=54790"},"modified":"2021-04-18T11:33:30","modified_gmt":"2021-04-18T11:33:30","slug":"bold-idea-to-combat-the-rise-of-infectious-diseases","status":"publish","type":"spotlight-fadyjameel","link":"https:\/\/alj.com\/en\/spotlight-by-fady-jameel\/bold-idea-to-combat-the-rise-of-infectious-diseases\/","title":{"rendered":"Bold IDEA to combat the rise of infectious diseases"},"content":{"rendered":"

Sometimes, a tragedy is too vast in scope to be ignored. \u00a0The number of lives claimed by infectious diseases is one such tragedy, and it\u2019s unfolding year after year before our very eyes.<\/h4>\n

By Fady Jameel<\/a>, Deputy President and Vice Chairman, Abdul Latif Jameel.<\/em><\/strong><\/h4>\n

The moral imperative is particularly acute because the countries most severely affected by infectious diseases \u2013 poorer, so-called Third World countries \u2013 are often those lacking the resources to respond with appropriate urgency.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

It doesn\u2019t have to be like this.\u00a0 I believe modern technology and data intelligence have given us the potential to tackle this global catastrophe with unprecedented precision. \u00a0Our challenge is therefore clear: how to use the new tools at our disposal to fight back against this growing menace and start saving more lives.<\/p>\n

Wherever you look, the figures make alarming reading.<\/p>\n

\"\"<\/p>\n

\"WorldAccording to the World Health Organization (WHO<\/a>), infectious diseases kill almost nine million people annually, many of them children under five. \u00a0Among those fortunate enough to survive, many more face lifelong disabilities.[1]<\/a><\/p>\n

Communicable diseases feature heavily among the top ten causes of death worldwide. \u00a0Lower respiratory infections (typically pneumonia) caused some three million deaths in 2016; diarrhea around 1.4 million deaths; tuberculosis, 1.3 million deaths; and AIDS a further one million.[2]<\/a><\/p>\n

And yet, this is only a glimpse of the true calamity, as media headlines attest to renewed outbreaks of Ebola, cholera, the Zika virus and MERS, adding countless more fatalities to the global tally.<\/p>\n

Charting a trail of destruction<\/h3>\n

The rapidly evolving science of epidemiology helps us track where new disease outbreaks occur and how quickly they spread.\u00a0 It also allows us to gauge when an epidemic (a sudden spike in cases of a certain disease within a population) evolves into a pandemic (one spread across several countries or even continents).<\/p>\n

For instance, the WHO describes the 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa, which started in Guinea and then spread across Sierra Leone and Liberia, as the worst pandemic since the virus was first discovered in 1976. \u00a0Guinea experienced more than 2,500 deaths, Sierra Leone almost 4,000, and Liberia close to 5,000.\u00a0 Currently, the eastern region of the Democratic Republic of Congo is in the grip of its own outbreak.[3]<\/a>\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0\u00a0<\/p>\n

\"Ebola<\/p>\n

The specter of cholera is rarely far away, with recent outbreaks in Angola, Ethiopia, Somalia, Sudan, Vietnam, Zimbabwe, Zambia and South Africa.\u00a0 A single epidemic in Zimbabwe in 2008, lasted almost a year and spread throughout the country as well as to neighboring Zambia and South Africa. \u00a0Yemen\u2019s cholera outbreak of 2016 was described by the WHO as \u201cthe worst cholera outbreak in the world\u201d<\/em>.\u00a0 Global cholera infections are estimated anywhere from three to five million annually, accounting for 100,000 to 130,000 deaths.[4]<\/a><\/p>\n

Although only recently gaining global attention, the Zika virus was first identified in Africa and Asia in the 1950s.\u00a0 It wasn\u2019t until 2013 that it entered the Oceania region, but subsequently lost little time in infiltrating the Americas.\u00a0 A 2015 outbreak originating in Brazil quickly spread to other countries in South America as well as Central America, North America and the Caribbean. \u00a0Some 1.5 million cases of Zika were recorded in Brazil alone. \u00a0An especially cruel virus, it can be transmitted from pregnant women to their unborn children, often resulting in the life-limiting condition known as microcephaly.<\/p>\n

\"\"Indeed, the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDPC<\/a>) reported around 1,500 cases of microcephaly in Brazil following the 2015-2016 outbreak.[5]<\/a><\/p>\n

Middle East Respiratory Syndrome (MERS-CoV), the respiratory infection otherwise known as \u2018camel flu\u2019, is another growing danger which demands our extreme vigilance.<\/p>\n

Initially emerging in Saudi Arabia in 2012, and spreading around the Arabian Peninsula, MERS claims a fatality rate of more than one third.<\/p>\n

\"The
The spread of MERS-CoV between animals and humans across the globe.\u00a0 Image credit \u00a9 WHO<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Demonstrating an unnerving ability to cross continents, one MERS strain was identified in a patient in London in 2012.\u00a0 This was followed three years later by a large outbreak in South Korea. \u00a0Some 6,508 people were quarantined during this flare-up, which led to 184 confirmed cases and 19 deaths. [6]<\/a><\/p>\n

\"Colorized
Colorized transmission electron micrograph showing particles of the Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus that emerged in 2012. Credit: NIAID<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Perfect storm exposes our vulnerability<\/h3>\n

The world in which we live today is starkly different to the world of several decades ago. \u00a0A booming population is placing new strains on infrastructures and resources. \u00a0In many countries, greater numbers of people are living in closer confines than ever before.<\/span><\/p>\n

Climate change is increasing the rate of natural disasters such as floods and hurricanes, which devastate living conditions and condemn many to an unsanitary environment.\u00a0 Wars and border conflicts, their manmade equivalent, have a similar impact.<\/p>\n

Concurrently, there has been an exponential increase in global mobility, meaning localized epidemics now have worldwide reach.\u00a0 This \u2018perfect storm\u2019 lends fresh urgency to efforts to combat the emergence and spread of these calamitous \u2013 and often preventable \u2013 infectious diseases.<\/p>\n

\"NationalA report by the NCBI<\/a> for the National Institute of Health in the United States, for instance, tracks disease outbreaks in the aftermath of natural disasters.[7]<\/a><\/p>\n

It recorded an outbreak of diarrheal disease after the Bangladesh floods of 2004 involving more than 17,000 cases; and more than 16,000 instances of cholera following flooding in West Bengal in 1998. \u00a0<\/p>\n

The eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines in 1991 led to around 18,000 cases of measles among the densely packed displaced population. \u00a0Pakistan registered more than 400 measles patients after the 2005 South East Asia earthquake. \u00a0A sharp rise in malaria cases in Costa Rica in 1991 was linked to an earthquake in the country\u2019s Atlantic Region in 1991.<\/p>\n

\"Anopheles
Anopheles stephensi mosquito feeding on a human host.\u00a0 This mosquito is a known malarial vector with a distribution that ranges from Egypt all the way to China. Source: CDC<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

Taking another perspective, a report in respected medical journal The Lancet<\/em> in 2002 examined the impact of diseases arising during and after the ultimate manmade disaster \u2013 war.<\/p>\n

It identified 25 conflict-hit countries, mostly in Sub-Saharan Africa, where respiratory infections, diarrhea, measles and malaria comprised 70% of all deaths.<\/p>\n

It estimated that \u2018crude mortality rates\u2019 were more than 60 times higher than baseline rates after mass displacements and highlighted the 12,000 Rwandan refugees killed in June 1994 following the outbreak of cholera and dysentery in Goma.[8]<\/a><\/p>\n

The picture might be bleak, the pattern clear. \u00a0And yet all is not lost. \u00a0As the peril grows, so too does our means of response.\u00a0 And it is here that I\u2019m determined Abdul Latif Jameel can make a significant difference.<\/p>\n

Technological solutions to natural problems<\/h3>\n

Artificial intelligence (AI) is establishing itself as our most valuable weapon in the fight against infectious diseases. \u00a0Using advanced computer systems, we\u2019re increasingly able to decipher their previously unpredictable appearance and spread.<\/p>\n

At its most fundamental level, AI enables us to gather live data as new outbreaks of infectious diseases occur, and predict their likely behavior by mapping this data against existing models. \u00a0This, in turn, helps emergency teams and scientists devise the most rapid and effective strategies to contain the threat \u2013 potentially, even preventing outbreaks before they have time to take root.<\/p>\n

Delving deeper, the areas in which AI can bolster our defenses against infectious diseases are almost limitless.\u00a0 Consider the value of real-time analysis and modeling to contain outbreaks; improving on-site data collection and unlocking its hidden clues; identifying more reliable methods for safeguarding displaced civilians; better understanding susceptibility and resilience factors; strengthening health systems in disease hotspots; and accelerating access to urgent treatments.<\/p>\n

We\u2019re still barely scratching the surface, and yet these benefits stretch beyond the merely hypothetical \u2013 the technology is with us now<\/em> and is already beginning to make an impact around the world.<\/p>\n

If AI resides in a state of relative infancy, our challenge becomes bringing it to maturity and maximizing its potential for changing lives for the better.<\/p>\n

Funding a revolutionary new IDEA<\/h3>\n

Encouragingly, while the challenge appears huge, so too is our ability to make a game-changing difference. \u00a0With AI\u2019s potential to save tens of thousands of lives per year, and maybe millions in the longer term, the onus is on us to act.<\/p>\n

\"Hassan<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

And that\u2019s why Community Jameel is proud to be partnering with Imperial College London<\/a> to establish the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics<\/a>, or J-IDEA.<\/p>\n

J-IDEA is a rapid response research center to predict and prevent global health crises.<\/p>\n