{"id":94899,"date":"2021-12-07T06:49:44","date_gmt":"2021-12-07T06:49:44","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/alj.com\/?post_type=spotlight-fadyjameel&p=94899"},"modified":"2022-06-28T07:34:30","modified_gmt":"2022-06-28T07:34:30","slug":"not-just-hot-air","status":"publish","type":"spotlight-fadyjameel","link":"https:\/\/alj.com\/en\/spotlight-by-fady-jameel\/not-just-hot-air\/","title":{"rendered":"Not just hot air"},"content":{"rendered":"

When it comes to global warming, CO2<\/sub> gets all the coverage.\u00a0 But carbon dioxide isn’t the only<\/em> greenhouse gas. \u00a0It is not even<\/em> the most potent.\u00a0 It\u2019s just that we, human society, release literally billions<\/em> of tons of it every year[1]<\/sup><\/a> as we burn our way through the planets reserves of fossil fuels laid down millions of years ago.<\/h4>\n

By comparison, 570 million<\/em> tons of methane released into the atmosphere each year doesn\u2019t sound so bad.[2]<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0 However, methane is 86 times more potent as an insulating greenhouse gas, reflecting back heat to the Earth, than CO2<\/sub> per unit mass.\u00a0 It’s this fact – and our rapidly increasing emissions – that make methane the second-largest driver of global warming.[3]<\/sup><\/a> \u00a0It is also the primary source of ground-level ozone, which causes up to one million premature deaths every year.[4]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n

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Scientists also suspect that methane was the cause of previous rapid warming events in our planet\u2019s geological history. \u00a0Under high pressure, like those in the ocean depths, the gas we know at the surface solidifies into a slush-like material called methane hydrate<\/a>. \u00a0Vast amounts of methane are \u2018frozen\u2019 in place<\/a> at the bottom of the sea in this state.\u00a0 These hydrates are generally stable unless disturbed by energy input, such as warmer water.<\/p>\n

Around something like 55 million years ago, the Earth experienced a warming<\/a> event that some scientists believe was initiated by destabilized hydrates. \u00a0Large amounts of methane leached up from the ocean floor to the atmosphere, creating a drastic and rapid rise in temperature as the gas trapped heat in the atmosphere.\u00a0 You can see this effect in action today with methane bubbles frozen in forest lakes in the far north.<\/p>\n

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Bubbles of methane gas in frozen lake ice (Photo credit: \u00a9 Aleksey Zakirov)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

In the atmosphere of more recent times, methane concentrations have risen dramatically.\u00a0 More than 150% today compared to that in the year 1750. \u00a0It\u2019s unclear if this will continue, however the UN\u2019s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) warns that keeping methane emissions in check<\/a> is essential to prevent further global warming.<\/p>\n

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Cutting methane emissions will be essential to achieving net-zero.\u00a0 The good news is, it\u2019s easier than cutting CO2<\/sub>.\u00a0 The bad news is, we\u2019re not moving fast enough.<\/p>\n

What is methane and where does it come from?<\/h2>\n

Methane is the simplest organic hydrocarbon molecule; a gas (at Earth temperature and pressure), abundant across the universe, made from a single carbon atom and four hydrogen atoms: CH4<\/sub>.[5]<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

The three biggest sources of human-generated (anthropogenic) methane are[6]<\/a>:<\/p>\n

    \n
  1. Agriculture (42%): <\/strong>Cattle, or more specifically, the microbes in their guts, produce methane as a byproduct of digestion.\u00a0 So do the bacteria that thrive in flooded rice paddies.\u00a0 And they produce a lot.<\/em>\u00a0 There are 1.4 billion cattle in the world, and that number is growing as demand for beef and dairy increases: together with other grazing animals.\u00a0 Livestock emissions alone account for more than 32% of anthropogenic methane emissions.[7]<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0 Forest fires and burning biomass also add to the total.<\/li>\n
  2. Fossil fuels (36%):<\/strong> Methane is the primary constituent of natural gas, which escapes from coal mines and leaky oil and gas pipelines, and the exhausts of cars, lorries, and buses.[8]<\/a> Recent studies suggest that wells in the US alone produce around 60% more methane than previously estimated by the US Environmental Protection Agency.[9]<\/a> \u00a0<\/li>\n
  3. Human waste (18%): <\/strong>Landfills, open dumps, and sewage provide a veritable feast for methane-releasing microbes.<\/li>\n<\/ol>\n
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    A visible white mist of methane gas seeps through rotting waste at a dump in Belgharia, India – leaking uncontrolled methane since 2008. \u00a0(Photo Credit \u00a9 Jonas Gratzer)<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

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    How much should we be worried about methane?<\/h2>\n

    There are two key characteristics that determine the impact of different greenhouse gases on the climate: the length of time they remain in the atmosphere and their ability to absorb energy. \u00a0Methane has a much shorter atmospheric lifespan than CO2<\/sub> (around 12 years compared with centuries for CO2<\/sub>), but its higher potency as an insulator and energy absorber makes it far more worrying.<\/p>\n

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    In calculating its effect on global warming, the IPCC<\/a> has indicated a global warming potential (GWP) for methane of between 84-87 over a 20-year timeframe, and between 28-36 when considering its impact over a 100-year timeframe. \u00a0This means that just one ton of methane is \u00a0equivalent to 28 to 36 tons of CO2 <\/sub>\u00a0if looking at its impact over 100 years, or 84-87 tons over 20 years.\u00a0 Or in other words, methane traps more than 80 times the heat that the same amount of carbon dioxide does in its first two decades in the atmosphere.<\/p>\n

    It is not only the potency of methane that is the problem.\u00a0 Methane emissions are also rising at their fastest rate since records began in the 1980s.\u00a0 There is now 2.5 times more methane in the air than in pre-industrial times, and it increased sharply during 2020, when even CO2<\/sub> slowed down, due largely to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic.[10]<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0 In the first eight \u2018lockdown\u2019 months of 2020, large methane leaks rose some 32%, according to Paris-based data firm Karryos[11]<\/a>.<\/p>\n

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    The simple fact is, if methane emissions keep rising, it won\u2019t matter how much CO2<\/sub> we cut, we won\u2019t keep global warming below the Paris Agreement<\/a> target of 1.5\u00b0C.\u00a0 However, the fact that, despite its potency as a greenhouse gas, methane degrades so rapidly, means that action taken now can have an almost-immediate cooling effect on the Earth\u2019s temperature, buying us more valuable time to ease the transition from fossil fuels and keep the net zero target in sight.<\/p>\n

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    What can we do about methane emissions?<\/h2>\n

    Why are methane emissions so high?\u00a0 Our increasing appetite for animal protein is one of the biggest culprits.\u00a0 With the world\u2019s population approaching 10 billion\u2014and more than ever able to afford meat\u2014this demand is expected to increase by up to 70% by 2050.[12]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n

    So, what can done?\u00a0 Quite a lot, actually.\u00a0 According to the UN Environment Programme (UNEP<\/a>), it\u2019s possible to cut almost half the 380 million metric tons of methane released each year with currently available and (mostly) cost-effective methods.[13]<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0 Doing that would reduce global temperatures by 0.18\u00b0C by 2050.<\/p>\n

    If that doesn\u2019t sound like much, consider that it would take us between 20% and 45% of the way towards keeping temperatures within the Paris Agreement targets.[14]<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0 Not to mention the immediate health benefits.\u00a0 According to the UNEP, the subsequent reduction in ground-level ozone would prevent 260,000 premature deaths, 775,000 asthma-related hospital visits, 73 billion hours of lost labor from extreme heat, and 25 million tons of crop losses every year.[15]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n

    Luckily, we have a host of options available to us.\u00a0 And we’re going to need them. \u00a0Methane emissions are intermittent and widely dispersed, making it tricky to capture data, coordinate action, and pay for everything.\u00a0<\/p>\n

    Agriculture is particularly challenging because it includes innumerable producers and smallholdings scattered around the world.\u00a0 Many methane abatement solutions also come with trade-offs.\u00a0 For example, detecting and repairing leaks in the oil and gas industry is usually more cost-effective than doing the same in coal mining.\u00a0 Similarly, changing animal feed may reduce methane emissions, but it can also lead to lower yields.\u00a0 Not ideal when global demand for animal protein is rising.\u00a0 In short, reducing methane emissions requires technical solutions and<\/em> changing consumption patterns.\u00a0 However, because changing consumption is notoriously difficult to achieve, especially on a global scale, the pressure is on the tech.<\/p>\n

    Consume less<\/h2>\n

    UNEP Food Systems and Agriculture Advisor James Lomax says the world needs to begin by \u201crethinking our approaches to agricultural cultivation and livestock production.\u201d<\/em>[16]<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0 ‘Methane footprints’ on food products could help.\u00a0 Shifting to plant-rich diets and alternative sources of protein may be appealing to health-conscious people in wealthy countries.\u00a0 However, it’s not realistic to expect people in middle-income countries to forgo the relatively little meat they eat now\u2014particularly when increased protein is key to improving their health.<\/p>\n

    Produce less<\/h2>\n

    According to McKinsey & Co., the agriculture, fossil fuel, and waste management industries could reduce global annual methane emissions by 20% by 2030 and 46% by 2050.[17]<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0 Here\u2019s how:<\/p>\n

    Agriculture<\/h3>\n

    A significant proportion of agricultural methane emissions could be reduced with existing and readily available technologies.\u00a0 Improving cattle feed and using additives can reduce the amount of methane they emit.\u00a0 Feeding cows seaweed, for example, can slash emissions by up to 80%.[18]<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0 Land management is another critical area. Intermittently draining rice paddies, rather than keeping them wet all the time, could halve emissions while saving money and water.[19]<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0 By employing these and other available solutions, the agricultural sector could reduce its emissions by 30% in 2050, states McKinsey in its report.[20]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n

    The UN is actively supporting food producers to address some of these issues.\u00a0 The Koronivia Joint Work on Agriculture<\/a>, for example, established by the UN\u2019s Food and Agriculture Organization<\/a> in 2017, is helping producers to become more efficient in a changing climate, while a Food Systems Summit<\/a> held in New York in September 2021, called on nations to do more to support the transition to more sustainable food production systems.\u00a0 Agricultural emissions were also on the agenda for the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change<\/a> and a key topic of discussion at the COP 26 Climate Change Conference<\/a>, held in the UK in October and November 2021.<\/p>\n

    Fossil fuels<\/h3>\n

    The oil and gas sector has numerous proven technologies to address methane emissions, including Leak Detection and Repair programs (LDAR), electrification, instrument air systems, and vapor recovery units.[21]<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0 Together, they could reduce emissions by 70% by 2050.[22]<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

    Coal mining emissions are harder to measure and capture but could be reduced by 13% in 2050.\u00a0 China accounts for 70% of global coal mining emissions, so it makes economic and environmental sense for them to pioneer and lead investment in abatement.<\/p>\n

    Waste management<\/h3>\n

    There are a few options for dealing with methane emissions from human waste.\u00a0 Where possible, organic waste could be diverted and turned into composts, and the food industry could switch to anaerobic digestion.\u00a0 After that, it’s a matter of minimizing the emissions that escape from what’s left.\u00a0<\/p>\n

    For solid waste, it comes down to collecting, capturing, and using landfill gas.\u00a0 Similarly, for wastewater management, covered lagoons and microalgae could recover or prevent gas formation.[23]<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0 Many of these options would require expensive upgrades, with limited opportunity to offset the cost, which might put them out of reach of some countries.\u00a0 Nevertheless, the possibility remains to reduce solid waste by 91% and wastewater by 77% by 2050.[24]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n

    So, how much is all this going to cost?<\/h2>\n

    The cost of implementing such methane abatement measures could be up to US$ 5.1 trillion over 30 years[25]<\/a>.\u00a0<\/p>\n

    Fortunately, methane is a valuable commodity, unlike CO2<\/sub>, making it easier to offset abatement efforts. \u00a0The additional methane captured can often be monetized directly, and this is typically easier in the oil and gas sectors than elsewhere in the energy sector.\u00a0 This means that emissions reductions could result in economic savings or be carried out at low cost. \u00a0\u00a0For example, the International Energy Agency (IEA)<\/a> estimates that 40% of oil and gas sector emissions could be eliminated at no net cost. \u00a0It’s not cheap, but it could be much higher.[26]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n

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    Measurement and reporting<\/h2>\n

    As William Thomson, Lord Kelvin, said as far back as in 1883, (paraphrased) \u201cWhat gets measured; gets done!\u201d.\u00a0 Currently, too much methane data is based on estimates and best guesses.\u00a0 Governments, NGOs, and industries need to increase investment and collaboration to improve measurement.\u00a0 For instance, oil and gas companies are pretty good at collecting data, but they usually keep it to themselves.\u00a0 This needs to change.\u00a0 Reporting methane emissions separately from CO2<\/sub> would also provide much-needed clarity while increasing scrutiny on the biggest emitters and supporting markets for lower emissions products.<\/p>\n

    \"\"The UN\u2019s Oil and Gas Methane Partnership (OGMP<\/a>) is working to standardize methane emissions data across its 66 member companies, which produce 30% of the world’s oil and gas.[27]<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n

    The OGMP will soon feed its data into the International Methane Emissions Observatory, a joint initiative by UNEP and the European Commission to get a handle on both private and public sector emissions.[28]<\/sup><\/a><\/p>\n

    How will all this data be collected?\u00a0 This is where technology can play a vital role.\u00a0<\/p>\n

    At any time, there are about 100 major methane leaks and countless smaller ones around the world.[29]<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0 The trouble is they’re sporadic and easy to miss.\u00a0 Ground-based sensors have limited coverage.\u00a0 Airplane and drone surveys are expensive, time-consuming, and barred from flying in some places.\u00a0 That’s where satellites come in.\u00a0<\/p>\n

    \"\"There has been a number of launches in the last five years, with even more on the way.\u00a0 Perhaps the most impressive of these is Carbon Mapper<\/a>, a joint initiative including NASA, the California Air Resources Board, satellite company Planet, universities, and nonprofits, and funding from private donors like Bloomberg Philanthropies.[30]<\/sup><\/a>\u00a0<\/p>\n