Dealing with drought

Record levels of drought are disrupting societies and economies across the world.  Strategic responses to take control of the situation are urgently required.  While dramatic weather events such as hurricanes and tsunamis command headlines worldwide, drought typically has a lower profile.  But as a United Nations (UN) report last year made clear, it is a serious and urgent problem.

The 2023 Global Drought Snapshot, from the UN’s Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), highlights the “silent devastation” that drought can cause[1].

Based on data from 101 countries, the report says that 1.84 billion people globally are drought stricken – with 4.7% of these exposed to severe or extreme drought.  Countries that declared drought emergencies in 2022 or 2023 included the United States, India, China and Indonesia.  And in many parts of the world, the problem is getting worse.  In 2022, Europe saw its hottest summer ever.  As a result, the area of the continent impacted by drought was its largest recorded at more than 630,000 km² – compared to the annual average of 167,000 km² witnessed from 2000 to 2022[2].  In some regions of China, meanwhile, the duration of moderate, severe and exceptional droughts is expected to double by the end of this century, and drought intensity is set to increase by more than 80%.[3]

The report makes clear that the impact of drought goes far beyond the immediate lack of water, engulfing communities, and ecosystems in a “pervasive web of interconnected destruction”.  Knock-on effects ranging from food shortages to increasing prices and the disruption of shipping contribute to global economic losses from drought estimated at billions of dollars annually[4].  Drought can also contribute to problems such as conflict and forced migration, leading to further disruption and suffering.  As UNCCD’s executive secretary Ibrahim Thiaw says, drought “quietly wreaks havoc on the only inhabitable planet we know of with far-reaching consequences for ecosystems, economies, and human lives” [5].  Understanding and addressing this problem is clearly an urgent global priority.

Record levels

In many parts of the world, recent droughts have reached record levels.  In February 2024, Catalonia faced the “worst drought ever recorded”[6].  More than six million Catalans across 200 towns and cities were affected, with residents banned from washing their cars and filling up empty swimming pools[7].  Droughts earlier this year also affected many other parts of the Mediterranean region, with restrictions on water use in places such as southern Spain and Sicily to address decreasing availability.  In Morocco, a ban was imposed on using water for cleaning roads, irrigating parks and some farming areas.  A European Commission study found critically low water levels in the country’s reservoirs, with the average dam filled to less than one quarter of its capacity.[8]

Meanwhile, northern Kenya, Ethiopia and Somalia are currently experiencing the severest drought on record, which has killed nine million livestock and placed four million people into acute food insecurity.  The effect has been to put East Africa “on the brink of a humanitarian catastrophe,” a representative of the International Rescue Committee told The Times newspaper, with millions of people facing impacts such as malnutrition, displacement and water shortages[9].

The Amazon rainforest is also experiencing its worst drought on record.  A European Commission report last year found that a lack of rain, combined with a series of heat waves and higher than average temperatures, was contributing to effects such as low river flows and vegetation stress, in turn harming local livelihoods and endangering biodiversity[10].  Alongside crop failures, low water levels mean boats can struggle to navigate, potentially isolating communities from essential goods and services and disrupting local economies[11].

Impact of climate change

Across these diverse locations and others, there is increasing evidence that climate change is contributing to historically bad droughts.  A study from the World Weather Attribution (WWA) international group of scientists in 2022 found that human-caused climate change made the drought conditions seen in many parts of the Northern Hemisphere – including Europe’s record hottest summer – at least 20 times more likely^[12].  In 2023, two studies came to comparable conclusions about other parts of the world.  Scientists from WWA said that climate change had made events like the current drought in East Africa about 100 times more likely, describing this as a “conservative estimate”.  And this year the same group said that climate change was the “main driver” of the exceptional drought in the Amazon basin.  While the El Niño weather phenomenon is also contributing to drought in the region, the researchers said that the severity of the current conditions is “largely driven by climate change”.

Discussing the impact of climate change on drought, the WWA says that while a meteorological drought is characterized by low rainfall, the definition of an agricultural drought also factors in the impact of increased evapotranspiration – the combination of water evaporation and transpiration from plants because of higher temperatures.

Higher evapotranspiration due to global warming can play a major role in exacerbating drought impacts.

In the case of the Amazon, WWA concluded that human-made climate change increased the likelihood of a meteorological drought by a factor of 10, while making an agricultural drought about 30 times more likely[13].

The group also warns that such events will become even more common unless the world takes steps to tackle climate change.  In a world 2°C warmer than preindustrial times, it says, an event like this would become even more likely by a further factor of four for an agricultural drought, and a further factor of three for the meteorological drought.

The WWA’s conclusions align with other research, indicating a growing consensus that climate change is contributing to an increase in drought problems.  A study in the US last year, led by NASA, found that both major droughts and periods of excessive rainfall had increased in line with global temperatures[14].  Between 2015 and 2021, for example, extreme wet and dry events occurred four times a year, compared to three per year in the previous 13 years.  The study concluded that “total intensity of extreme events was strongly correlated with global mean temperature… suggesting that continued warming of the planet will cause more frequent, more severe, longer and/or larger droughts and pluvials”.  NASA explains that the findings make sense because warmer air causes more moisture to evaporate from Earth’s surface during dry events; warm air can also hold more moisture to fuel severe snowfall and rainfall events

In various ways, the effects of drought can themselves worsen the situation.  The UK’s Met Office highlights how as soil dries due to increased evaporation, it can make the air above heat even more, leading to further evaporation[15].  The US-based think tank C2ES points out that climate change is also changing the timing of water availability.  Warmer temperatures in winter are causing less precipitation to fall as snow in the Northern Hemisphere, which can be a problem, even if there is a corresponding increase in rainfall.  Many water systems rely on snow melting in spring for their supply, so rising temperatures may disrupt the existing balance.  What’s more, says C2ES, snow acts as a reflective surface – so less of it on the ground will lead to higher surface temperatures, further increasing drought problems.

While the impact of climate change on drought is complex, there is little doubt that it is making the problem worse.  The sixth assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) says there is high confidence that over the 21st Century, “the total land area subject to drought will increase and droughts will become more frequent and severe”.[16]  Under high emission scenarios, says NASA, “drought-prone areas could enter persistent megadroughts”.  The agency adds that in many areas the risk of dry soils could increase, and some places could experience “more frequent and severe wildfires”.[17]

Impact of worsening droughts

Drought can have a wide range of devastating impacts.  When the supply of water is reduced, it limits the ability of households to use it for purposes such as drinking, cooking, watering plants and cleaning.  It can also have a major negative effect on industries such as agriculture, energy, and transport, as well as creating public health problems[18].  The National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska compares the chain of direct and indirect impacts of drought to dominos.  If a farmer’s corn crops fail, for example, they might not have enough money to buy a new tractor from a dealer, who would then lose money.  If enough farmers lose their corn crops, the dealership might not be able to employ as many people or may even have to close down – leading to more impacts in the community.[19]

Economic effects

Drought has a major economic impact, too.  According to NASA, floods and droughts account for more than 20% of the economic losses caused by extreme weather events in the US each year.[20]  One of the industries most affected is agriculture.  According to the US government’s National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the main primary impacts are crop failures and losses of pasture.  Since 1980, the US has experienced 26 droughts where the overall damage costs were at least US$ $1 billion – together costing the country at least US$ 249 billion (in 2020 prices)[21].  In the state of California alone, a drought directly cost the agricultural sector about US$ $1.1 billion and nearly 8,750 full- and part-time jobs, according to analysis led by researchers at the University of California[22].  In 2023, it was calculated that drought conditions in a number of Southern and Midwestern US states had a cost of US$ $14.5 billion.[23]

The direct impact of drought on farming can lead to a range of indirect effects – including reduced supplies to food processing companies, and lower demand for inputs such as fertilizer and farm labor.  The costs of losses are sometimes passed on to consumers through increased prices, or they may be mitigated through government assistance programs.

As NOAA highlights, many other industrial sectors also experience serious effects from drought.  Manufacturers use water for purposes such as fabrication, processing, washing and cooling[24].  Water is also used in the production of all types of energy.  Hydroelectric power production is more efficient with higher water levels, for example, while thermal power generation (including coal and gas-fired plants) needs large amounts of water to generate steam and for cooling.

Effects such as these mean droughts can have a major impact on national economies.  The European Commission says that drought currently has an annual cost of € 9 billion to EU member states and the UK, with the figure for each of Spain, Italy and France exceeding € 1 billion each^[25].  The impact is generally worse in poorer countries.  A World Bank analysis found that the adverse effects of a dry shock are “heavily concentrated in developing countries”^[26].  In low- and middle-income countries, extreme drought reduces growth by about 0.85 percentage points, while in high-income countries, it lowers growth by “a little less than half the impact felt in developing countries”.^[27]  The fall of Zambia’s Kwacha currency to a record low this year amid an intense drought is a clear indication of the potential for drought to cause serious economic consequences.[28]

Health, social and environmental impact

In East Africa, ongoing economic devastation from years of drought is also leading to health and social problems.  The World Health Organization (WHO) says that the impact of climate-related disasters, together with conflict, has driven extremely high levels of hunger, and large displacements as people leave their homes in search of food and water.  More than 45 million people are experiencing high levels of food insecurity, with rising hunger in Sudan, northern Ethiopia and South Sudan.  The WHO expects 10.8 million children aged under five to be facing acute malnutrition by June 2024, and says a “surge” in outbreaks of diseases including cholera, malaria, and measles can be directly linked to extreme climate events and conflict.

Discussing the health impact of the drought, the WHO explains that large-scale displacement is often accompanied by a deterioration in hygiene and sanitation and adds that nutritional deficiencies can make people more vulnerable to disease – particularly children.[29]

Health problems due to drought can also be a problem in wealthier countries.  In the US, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) says that drought has many and far-reaching health implications, such as increasing water pollution, affecting livestock health and making sanitation more difficult[30].

Aside from human health, drought can also have a major impact on environments and biodiversity through a wide range of effects such as destroying habitats, causing migration or increasing disease[31][32].

Addressing the risks and impact of drought

Working to combat climate change in general will help address the problem of drought.  But equally, focused action can help countries prepare for and deal with droughts more effectively when they occur.  The UNCCD urges countries to adopt “proactive, coordinated and holistic” approaches to managing the risks of drought.  While many countries rely solely on crisis management to tackle drought, the body says early action is vital to mitigate and address the impacts.  The convention is working with 70 countries to implement “drought smart” approaches, including monitoring and early warning systems, vulnerability and impact assessments, and a range of mitigation measures.[33]

A toolbox provided by the UNCDD brings together resources in each of these categories for countries to use.  For monitoring and early warning, for example, the Digital Earth Africa platform provides detailed climactic data to help decision-makers manage issues including land use, agriculture and coastal erosion as well as flooding and drought[34].  This includes the continent-wide initiative Water Observations from Space, which uses decades of satellite imagery to showcase changes in water availability over time.  Officials in Tanzania have used this and other data from Digital Earth Africa to monitor water levels in Lake Sulunga to help develop policy to protect the lake and communities that depend on it.[35]

Countries are using a wide range of practical approaches to mitigate the impact of drought. The UNCCD says that these can include exploring drought-tolerant crops, developing sustainable irrigation schemes and setting up initiatives for harvesting water.  In countries such as Kenya[36] and Swaziland[37], for example, some rural communities are building sand dams.  The technique consists of building a concrete wall across sandy rivers that flow in rainy seasons.  Sediment builds up behind the wall, storing water which can be accessed during the dry season through shallow wells or digging holes upstream.  The sand dam also raises the water table in the surrounding area, creating better soil for crops and grazing livestock[38].

Other approaches are more reliant on technological innovation, such as cloud seeding, which involves aircraft injecting a substance such as silver iodide into existing clouds to encourage water to condense more easily and increase rainfall[39].  While the approach was first tried in the 1940s, it is currently generating increasing interest among policymakers[40].  The UAE carries out hundreds of cloud-seeding missions each year[41], saying the technique can increase rainfall by up to 25% – and a number of US states have expanded programs in recent years.[42]  Many scientists are also researching how to engineer drought-resistant crops, such as those at the UK’s Sheffield University, who say genetically modifying rice to tolerate salt water better could allow it to be grown in more places[43].  A more drought-tolerant wheat variety, HB4, has already been approved for commercialization and cultivation in Argentina and Brazil, with plans for further expansion[44].

Holistic responses

The UNCCD’s Global Drought Snapshot highlights approaches such as landscape restoration, sustainable agricultural practices and efficient water management as critical components of an effective response[45].  Clearly, there are many different aspects of addressing drought – and actions by individuals, communities, institutions and governments all play a part.  Given this complexity, leadership at a local, national and international level is essential to draw all the elements together.  Collaboration is also vital, to foster mutual support and build momentum.

In this respect, it’s encouraging that 2022 saw the formation of the International Drought Resilience Alliance.  Jointly convened by the presidents of Spain and Senegal, the initiative now includes 36 countries with widely varying circumstances as well as 28 supporting institutions.  In 2023, Pedro Sánchez, president of Spain and the alliance’s co-chair, praised IDRA’s achievements in its first year, included building political support, developing a shared framework for new projects, accelerating knowledge sharing and developing new funding mechanisms^[46].

Almar Water Solutions, part of Jameel Environmental Services, is at the forefront of multiple initiatives across the globe to enhance the drought resilience of local communities.  Founded in 2016, the company operates a portfolio of sustainable water infrastructure projects across Europe, the Middle East, Latin America, Africa, and Asia-Pacific, ensuring reliable water access in both the municipal and industrial sectors.

Its Shuqaiq 3 Sea Water Reverse Osmosis (SWRO) plant in Saudi Arabia was named ‘Desalination Plant of the Year’ in the Global Water Industry Awards 2023.  Construction work at Shuqaiq 3 was completed in January 2023, in record time, despite the challenging impacts of COVID-19.

It is one of the biggest SWRO plants in Saudi Arabia, capable of supplying around two million people in the Asir and Jizan areas.  The plant, which is already producing water at full capacity, produces 450,000 cubic meters of potable water per day, making it a milestone in sustainable and innovative desalination.

In neighboring Bahrain, Almar Water Solutions runs the 100,000 m³/day state-of-the-art Muharraq wastewater treatment plant, which recycles treated used water into high-grade reclaimed water.  Muharraq’s infrastructure includes the first 16.5km deep gravity sewer trunk pipeline in the Gulf region, as well as a wastewater collection network.

Meanwhile in Europe, another Abdul Latif Jameel partner is Spanish technology firm Datakorum, which helps transform water into smart data, ultimately helping to increase efficiency and save vital natural resources.  In Abu Dhabi, Datakorum is helping to drive the digital transformation of the emirate’s water infrastructure. Under a five-year contract, Datakorum will provide 5G gateways to ensure uninterrupted connectivity between end users, distribution meters and advanced metering water infrastructure.

Most recently, Antofagasta Minerals and a consortium jointly owned by Almar Water Solutions, and Transelec announced an agreement for a water transportation system for the Centinela mining operation.  The initiative, around a US$ 1.5 billion investment, will double the current supply of seawater by improving the existing pipeline alongside the construction of a second pipeline to provide non-desalinated seawater to expand operations at Centinela, Northern Chile.

“Initiatives such as these and others like them, combining vision with practical action, offer hope that the world can meet the challenges of drought in the coming decades,” says Fady Jameel, Vice Chairman, Abdul Latif Jameel.

“Whether through direct experience or the associated impacts for societies and the economy, water scarcity will affect us all.  Drought itself knows no borders, so it is vital that governments, companies, innovators and communities work together to address the risks of drought and minimize its consequences for our planet and its people.”

[1] https://www.unccd.int/sites/default/files/2023-12/Global%20drought%20snapshot%202023.pdf

[2] https://www.eea.europa.eu/data-and-maps/data/data-viewers/drought-impact-on-ecosystems-in

[3] https://www.unccd.int/sites/default/files/2023-12/Global%20drought%20snapshot%202023.pdf

[4] https://www.unccd.int/sites/default/files/2023-12/Global%20drought%20snapshot%202023.pdf

[5] https://www.unccd.int/sites/default/files/2023-12/Global%20drought%20snapshot%202023.pdf

[6] https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/2/6/worst-drought-recorded-hits-spains-catalonia-sparking-fears-and-ingenuity

[7] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-68167942

[8] https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/prolonged-drought-and-record-temperatures-have-critical-impact-mediterranean-2024-02-20_en

[9] https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/kenyan-herders-on-the-edge-after-record-drought-tpchqwtvr

[10] https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/jrc-news-and-updates/record-temperatures-and-heatwaves-bring-unprecedented-drought-amazon-basin-2023-12-20_en

[11] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-67751685

[12] https://www.imperial.ac.uk/news/240391/droughts-northern-hemisphere-made-20-times/

[13] https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/climate-change-not-el-nino-main-driver-of-exceptional-drought-in-highly-vulnerable-amazon-river-basin/

[14] https://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/goddard/warming-makes-droughts-extreme-wet-events-more-frequent-intense/

[15] https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/understanding-climate/uk-and-global-extreme-events-drought

[16] https://report.ipcc.ch/ar6/wg1/IPCC_AR6_WGI_FullReport.pdf

[17] https://climate.nasa.gov/news/3117/drought-makes-its-home-on-the-range/

[18] https://www.c2es.org/content/drought-and-climate-change/

[19] https://drought.unl.edu/Education/DroughtforKids/DroughtEffects.aspx

[20] https://www.nasa.gov/centers-and-facilities/goddard/warming-makes-droughts-extreme-wet-events-more-frequent-intense/

[21] https://www.drought.gov/news/high-cost-drought

[22] https://news.ucmerced.edu/news/2022/last-year’s-drought-cost-ag-industry-more-1-billion-thousands-jobs-new-analysis-shows

[23] https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/beyond-data/2023-historic-year-us-billion-dollar-weather-and-climate-disasters

[24] https://www.drought.gov/sectors/manufacturing

[25] https://joint-research-centre.ec.europa.eu/system/files/2020-09/07_pesetaiv_droughts_sc_august2020_en.pdf

[26] https://documents.worldbank.org/en/publication/documents-reports/documentdetail/099640306142317412/idu03b9849a60d86404b600bc480bef6082a760a

[27] https://www.worldbank.org/en/news/immersive-story/2023/09/12/droughts-and-deficits-the-global-impacts

[28] https://www.reuters.com/markets/currencies/zambias-kwacha-hits-record-low-against-us-dollar-2024-05-08/

[29] https://www.who.int/emergencies/situations/drought-food-insecurity-greater-horn-of-africa

[30] https://www.cdc.gov/nceh/drought/implications.htm

[31] https://drought.unl.edu/Education/DroughtforKids/DroughtEffects.aspx

[32] https://www.ceh.ac.uk/news-and-media/blogs/impacts-drought-water-quality-and-wildlife

[33] https://www.unccd.int/land-and-life/drought/overview

[34] https://www.digitalearthafrica.org

[35] https://www.digitalearthafrica.org/why-digital-earth-africa/impact-stories/using-satellite-data-combat-drought-monitoring-lake-sulunga

[36] https://www.voanews.com/a/to-make-water-last-kenyans-build-sand-dams-/7541535.html

[37] https://unfccc.int/climate-action/momentum-for-change/activity-database/momentum-for-change-sand-dams-a-sustainable-solution-for-water-scarce-regions

[38] https://www.sanddamsworldwide.org.uk/what-is-a-sand-dam

[39] https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-68839043

[40] https://thebulletin.org/2022/08/dodging-silver-bullets-how-cloud-seeding-could-go-wrong/

[41] https://english.alarabiya.net/News/gulf/2024/01/18/UAE-to-carry-out-hundreds-of-cloud-seeding-missions-in-2024-to-tackle-water-scarcity

[42] https://e360.yale.edu/features/can-cloud-seeding-help-quench-the-thirst-of-the-u.s.-west

[43] https://www.sheffield.ac.uk/news/genetically-modified-rice-could-be-key-tackling-food-shortages-caused-climate-change

[44] https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/argentinas-bioceres-expand-gmo-wheat-sales-via-seed-marketers-2023-05-11/

[45] https://www.unccd.int/sites/default/files/2023-12/Global%20drought%20snapshot%202023.pdf

[46] https://enb.iisd.org/events/awareness-action-united-drought-resilience-changing-climate-unccd-1dec2023