Nowhere in the world will prove immune from the ravages of climate change.

From outbreaks of heatwaves and wildfires in Europe[1], to biodiversity crises in the Amazon[2], to the inundation by seawater of numerous island groups in the Pacific and Indian oceans[3], all societies will face harsh choices in the struggle to survive the looming environmental transition.

However, global warming is saving its cruelest consequences for an area of the world already blighted by inequality, deprivation and conflict – Africa.

Africa, home to 54 countries and more than a billion people, has a troubled heritage.  Arid conditions and high temperatures have long acted as a cauldron for drought and starvation, with tens of millions perishing over recent decades.  Against this backdrop, civil unrest and cross-border strife have further imperiled an already beleaguered populace.

Even though the worst impacts of climate change have not yet been fully felt, Africa is already in the grip of multiple humanitarian disasters.

The Horn of Africa, around Ethiopia, Kenya and Somalia, is currently mired in its most serious drought in 40 years.  Five years of rainfall deprivation have affected 50 million people, 20 million of whom face possible famine.[4]  Shockingly, more than 20% of people living in Africa are classed as undernourished.[5]

Such a hot, dry climate has left ground vegetation highly combustible, with Algeria and Tunisia far from alone in experiencing heat-fueled wildfires throughout 2022.

Cyclones have exacted a severe toll too.  The southern African region weathered a series of relentless tropical storms in 2022 causing mass displacement and humanitarian suffering, especially on the island of Madagascar.

Off the coast, sea level rises have been equally ominous.  Along the Red Sea and the western Indian Ocean, sea levels have been rising 3.7mm per year and 3.6mm per year respectively, exceeding the annual global mean rise of 3.4mm.[6]

Worse may yet lie ahead.  The challenging scenario across Africa is likely to decline further in the coming years, particularly with the continent in the grip of climate change.

Temperatures rising further – and faster – than anywhere else

With its location and topography, Africa is highly vulnerable to the symptoms of global warming.  Temperatures here are likely to continue rising further and faster than elsewhere in the world.

From 1991 to 2022, Africa warmed at an average of 0.3oC per decade, a more rapid increase than the average 0.2oC per decade the continent experienced from 1961 to 1990.[7]  By 2040, Africa’s ‘fragile states’ (those noted for weak governance, social tensions, humanitarian crises and armed conflict), from the Central African Republic to Somalia and Sudan, could be enduring 60 or more days per year of stifling 35oC+ temperatures – four times more than non-fragile states.[8]

At the same time, rainfall patterns are likely to become even more unpredictable.  What this means for people on the ground is truly existential: Extreme weather catastrophes, crop failures, loss of livelihoods and accelerated desertification.

In most developed nations, global warming means more expensive bills, less choice at the supermarket and perhaps interrupted vacations.  For people living in Africa, global warming could mean the difference between life and death.

What does the future hold for this vulnerable region of the world?  Is Africa doomed to suffer eternally as the global climate continues to degrade – or could salvation await via policy, technology and investment initiatives?  Addressing the unique vulnerability of this vast, complex continent to the menace of climate change will demand an upsurge in empathy and understanding.

Hundred million suffering in climate change crisis

Africa’s climate woes are nothing if not unjust.  Combined, all African countries account for just 3.8% of global greenhouse gases annually, compared to China (23%), the USA (19%) and the European Union (EU) (13%).[9]  Similarly, carbon dioxide emissions per head are just 1.04 metric tons per year, far less than the global average of 4.69 metric tons.[10]

Despite this relative lack of culpability, the World Meteorological Organization highlights six areas of concern in the continent’s near and middle-term future.

These include the accelerating rate of temperature increase; falling agricultural productivity; extreme weather exacerbating issues around food security, displacement and conflict; a lack of adaptation funding; the rising cost of losses and damages; and inadequate early warning systems.

Heatwaves, floods, cyclones and droughts are devastating whenever and wherever they occur.  However, this is particularly true in an economically challenged part of the world such as Africa, with an average GDP per head of just over US$ 2,000 as of 2023.[11]  In Africa, the disaster response framework is underdeveloped.  Outdated sanitation allows disease to flourish, and hunger can segue into starvation with only the smallest of nudges.

For many civilians it is a matter of survival.

Figures show more than a hundred million people living in Africa were impacted by climate hazards in 2022, including 5,000 deaths due to droughts and floods.  The actual figures are likely to be considerably higher, due to the difficulty of compiling statistics across a vast terrain with unreliable communications.

Apart from the human toll of climate change, conservative estimates also showed more than US$ 8.5 billion of financial damage incurred in 2022 – a crippling blow in a region whose economy already lags behind much of the developed world.

Farming is a lifeline for many African families and economies, occupying more than half of the entire labor force in sub-Saharan Africa.  Yet climate change has seen agricultural productivity decline by around a third since 1961.[12]  This marks a steeper fall than any other region in the world, and means Africa has had to triple the amount of food it imports annually to sustain its population.[13]  Only 3% of Africa’s cultivated areas have been irrigated with canals or reservoirs, leaving crops exposed to the ravages of floods and drought.[14]  Lack of maintenance funding can condemn any irrigation schemes that do exist to disrepair.  Sudan’s Gezira irrigation network, for instance, now covers less than half the 8,000km2 area it once occupied.  In some scenarios, climate change by 2060 could force an extra 50 million people in Africa’s fragile states into hunger.[15]

UNECA’s African Climate Policy Centre aims to quantify the economic impact of climate-driven losses and damages.  It estimates a US$ 290 billion to US$ 440 billion bill for Africa, depending on the severity of warming that ultimately transpires.

Africa’s capacity to survive the climate transition will require support from international partners.  In the interests of maintaining a strong and stable world, helping Africa to avoid the specters of hunger, war and mass migration must become a global mission.

Self-sufficiency pivotal to long-lasting solutions

Just imagine what Africa could achieve if it was able to unlock the potential of its enviable resources: Not just near limitless energy, but near limitless clean energy.  The sun-baked continent, after all, is bestowed with more than half of all the world’s solar potential; however, across the entire continent, total installed capacity is equivalent to just a small European country.[16]

Unleashing solar power across Africa, along with other sustainable sources like wind, hydro and geothermal energy, would bring unparallelled benefits – not just a cleaner environment better able to survive the climate crisis, but more jobs, greater prosperity, improved health, and more equality in all layers of society.

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goal to ensure universal energy access by 2030 must seem like a distant fantasy in Africa, where the capital costs of new energy projects are two to three times higher than in mature economies.[17]  This quandary means hundreds of millions of people lack electricity, severely limiting prospects for their education and employment.

Now is the time to bankroll a mass rollout of renewable energy choices across Africa.  According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), green electricity is set to become cheaper than fossil-based alternatives in Africa by 2030.[18]

However progress remains slow, with only around 3% of global energy investments currently centered on Africa.[19]  Changing this paradigm will require bold moves from both public and private sectors.

Major global financial institutions are trying to catalyze progress, effectively de-risking investments from the private sector and laying the foundations for long-lasting economic growth.  Homes and industries need reliable power supplies to flourish.  Depending on location, some of these needs will be met by robust power grids in the heart of communities; elsewhere, solar and battery arrays could support off-grid systems in more remote areas.

The international community knows that the best way to support Africa is by helping it become economically self-sufficient.  That means empowering its people to establish a solid industrial base and manufacturing capacity.  Public sector investment would likely provide exceptional value for money – some figures suggest US$ 28 billion of concessional capital from development agencies would unlock more than three times that amount in private funding.[20]

Seizing the initiative, the IEA’s new ‘Financing Clean Energy in Africa’ report calls for a doubling of energy investments in Africa by the end of the decade, to more than US$ 200 billion per year.  Its analysis examines how to achieve this dramatic boost in investment and ultimately reduce the cost of financing clean energy altogether.

The IEA’s solutions for sustainable investment in Africa include:

  • Mobilizing capital from governments, development agencies and private investors – the latter increasing six-fold by 2030
  • Launching clean cooking schemes to reduce dependency on firewood
  • Ensuring equal support for Africa’s lower income nations, which are home to three-quarters of the continent’s population but attract only a fraction of the development funding
  • Investing ambitiously in energy grids to improve reliability, democratize access to opportunity, and aid the rapid integration of renewables
  • Encouraging wide-ranging investment for energy efficiency projects to reduce demand wherever possible
  • Funneling funding towards cutting-edge technology projects, with streamlined delivery mechanisms, blended finance structures and multilateral development banks de-risking private investments
  • Adopting verifiable regulatory and monitoring frameworks to attract investment from carbon markets

We can already see some of these initiatives in action.  Djibouti, with an average of 130mm rainfall annually, is one of the most parched locations on Earth.[21]  In its coastal areas, some 30,000 Djiboutians are subject to oceanic floods each year.  Yet Djibouti recently secured a five-year, multi-peril disaster insurance agreement encompassing a range of international partners.

The deal brings together the Djibouti Government, the African Risk Capacity Group (ARC), Descartes Insurance and the World Bank.  In protecting vulnerable communities from unforeseen drought and precipitation, the scheme complements the World Bank’s De-Risking, Inclusion and Value Enhancement of Pastoral Economies (DRIVE) Project, designed to protect cattle farmers in the Horn of Africa from the impacts of global heating.

The Djibouti agreement establishes proof of concept.  Partner organizations hope to see similar schemes unveiled for a further 200 million people in Africa.  Only by pooling technical resources and funds can contingency planning and emergency response be guaranteed, safeguarding homes and livelihoods.

The template deal proves, says David Maslo of ARC, that “disaster risk financing not only works but is critical in Africa where the fallout from climate change disproportionately impacts the most vulnerable.”[22]

Global warming hinders economic development in Africa.  It risks crippling agricultural systems, threatens to reverse decades of progress in education and healthcare, and imperils the land’s cultural heritage.  Swift action can help limit these dangers and build a more resilient Africa, for the benefit of the whole world.

Temperature and population numbers rise in tandem

Without adequate climate mitigation, more than 100 million Africans could be forced to relocate by mid-century.  In the Horn of Africa, almost 10% of people could be compelled to move and seek shelter from the climate or to protect livelihoods.[23]

Future-proofing these climate-prone lands will require investment in sustainable, connected cities, and the careful management of land, water and other natural resources.  Hope potentially lies on the horizon thanks to initiatives such as the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF’s) Resilience and Sustainability Facility.  The fund offers affordable long-term financing for smaller nations committed to strengthening their resilience against climate-related shocks.[24]

Forums such as the Africa Climate Summit 2023, held in Nairobi, are also vital for maintaining momentum on the pathway to sustainability.  The summit, which united the talents of leaders from governments, businesses, NGOs and civil society, formulated a call to action for boosting climate resilience across the continent.  Proposed measures included:

  • Restructuring Africa’s legacy debt and unlocking new climate funding
  • Ensuring the international community honors COP15’s pledge of US$ 100 billion in annual climate finance
  • Continuing the rapid phase-down of coal power and phase-out of fossil fuel subsidies
  • Securing climate-positive investments to catalyze a growth trajectory, enabling middle-income status for African countries by 2050
  • Activating COP27’s ‘loss and damage’ fund to offset the toll of the developed world’s historic industrialization
  • Prioritizing Africa’s economic growth and job creation to reflect the ambitions of the Paris Climate Agreement
  • Bypassing the traditional fossil fuel stage of industrial development by going straight to green fuels and circular economy principles
  • Strengthening actions to halt and reverse biodiversity loss
  • Expanding early warning systems and climate information services, while embracing indigenous knowledge and citizen science

All such actions carry an air of urgency given that Africa’s 1.2 billion population figure is projected to double in the next 30 years[25] – just as the most damaging effects of climate change begin to manifest in our ecosystems.

The private sector, domestically and internationally, will play a key role in this necessary transition.

Private sector confronts Africa’s deadly climate crisis

Businesses like Abdul Latif Jameel are using the power of private capital to help climate-vulnerable communities across the globe in a variety of ways.

Recognizing that the climate lies at the heart of many looming crises, we are playing our part in limiting global warming by funding the expansion of green energy worldwide.

Our flagship renewable energy business, Fotowatio Renewable Ventures (FRV), manages a versatile portfolio of solar, energy storage, wind and hybrid energy projects across the Middle East, Latin America, Europe and Australia.

In regions like Africa with plentiful sunlight, solar energy has the potential to power innumerable homes and businesses.  That is one reason why FRV-X, the innovation wing of FRV, has invested US$ 10.6 million in ecoligo, a German ‘solar-as-a-service’ provider.  Founded in 2016, ecoligo is helping commercial and industrial partners around the world – including in Africa – to fund solar projects via an innovative crowd investment platform.

Drought-hit communities in Africa are at the forefront of minds at Almar Water Solutions, part of Jameel Environmental Services.  Almar Water Solutions is working to widen access to reliable supplies of clean water in dryland areas through the development and management of state-of-the-art desalination facilities, smart water grid services and digitized local water infrastructure.

Food security is likewise an ongoing concern in Africa, where more than 55 million children under five have stunted growth due to extreme malnutrition.[26]

It is statistics like this that inspire the Jameel Water and Food Systems lab (J-WAFS) at MIT, co-founded by Community Jameel in 2014.  J-WAFS funds research into ambitious agricultural breakthroughs such as drought-resistant seeds or tech-driven farms-of-the-future – all vital measures in a continent undergoing rapid climate transition.

Similarly, the Abdul Latif Jameel Poverty Action Lab (J-PAL), a global research center working to reduce poverty by ensuring scientific evidence drives public policy, also has a strong presence in Africa.  Here, the J-PAL team works in collaboration with C40, a global network of mayors from the world’s leading cities united by a desire to control the climate crisis before it begins to control us.  J-PAL operates a series of pioneering climate labs to tackle the specter of global heating from an African perspective.  Members work with government policymakers from Egypt in the north to South Africa in the sub-Saharan region.

Based at the University of Cape Town, J-PAL Africa conducts randomized evaluations and helps partners scale-up effective programs across a wide range of social initiatives, from labor markets and urban services to political participation.

J-PAL’s affiliated researchers have 391 ongoing and completed projects in Africa.  Recent evaluations, which will help communities navigate the climate crisis, have included:

  • Building trust in fertilizer quality among farmers in Tanzania
  • Encouraging the adoption of rainwater harvesting tanks through collateralized loans in Kenya
  • Promoting healthcare and health insurance enrollment in Ghana
  • Improving harvests and health through a high-yielding rice variety in Sierra Leone
  • Linking weather index insurance and credit to improve agricultural productivity in rural Ethiopia.

Community Jameel promotes a range of other initiatives to help fortify this vast, diverse continent against climate change.

Jameel Observatory, Nairboi Kenya

The Jameel Observatory, for instance, uses data-driven evidence to anticipate and mitigate climate shocks, especially in low-income societies.  Its two flagship programs include the Jameel Observatory Climate Resilience Early Warning System Network (Jameel Observatory-CREWSnet), bolstering agricultural communities with state-of-the-art climate forecasting and resilience-boosting technology; and the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action, fusing local knowledge with scientific innovation to overcome malnutrition in dryland areas.

Some initiatives require an on-the-ground presence to succeed.  One Jameel Observatory researcher, for instance, journeyed to Meru County, Kenya to quantify livestock diets and their impact on GHG emissions.  The visit helped plug crucial data gaps, promising to both improve animal nutrition while also cutting methane levels – outcomes that would have proved impossible if team members were limited to remote data sifting.

Given recent advances in climate modelling technology and data analysis, the case for greater financing for anticipatory action is more compelling than ever[27].  Investors have generally been more inclined to act during unfolding emergencies, even though money spent in advance can be far more effective – an irony that demands an urgent change in perspective.

Dual strategy can help Africa achieve sustainable security

Countries in the developed world must learn the lessons from their own environmentally-harmful evolution and ensure Africa has a more sustainable route to wealth and security. This will demand a dual strategy.  Firstly, turbocharging the continent’s economy by empowering African nations to thrive in a modern, tech-driven world with sophisticated financial systems.  Secondly, coordinating efforts to combat the underlying causes of global heating which herald such devastating changes to temperatures and weather systems in equatorial regions.

As my colleague Dr Guyo Roba of the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action discussed in a podcast for Philanthropy Age, philanthropy will have a significant role to play in safeguarding African lives during this new era of environmental uncertainty.  Shrinking aid budgets are already leading to ration cuts, a warning of even greater risks as the UN’s target +2oC temperature limit looks increasingly like wishful thinking.  All this, as evidence mounts that a child’s entire future trajectory is determined by what it eats during its first thousand days of life, when up to 90% of brain development occurs.  Climate prediction technology is improving constantly; international financing now needs to play catch-up to ensure this extra knowledge becomes the basis for concrete action.

We have cause for hope.  In the private sector especially, success drives success.  Late in 2023, the University of Edinburgh and the International Livestock Research Institute (ILRI) renewed a decades-long memorandum of understanding signaling ongoing support for multiple research programs, including Community Jameel, J-PAL, and the Jameel Observatory for Food Security Early Action[28].  Philanthropy, as we have seen, is a joint undertaking, a hearts-and-minds endeavor which can trigger a domino chain of humanitarian interventions.

Failing to act on climate change in Africa is a moral dereliction, condemning more than a billion souls to shortened, difficult lives bereft of hope or opportunity.  The alternative, empowering an entire society to join us on our journey into the future, promises to encourage fairness and prosperity everywhere.

 

[1] https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/how-climate-change-drives-heatwaves-wildfires-europe-2023-08-17/

[2] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-023-06970-0

[3] https://www.livescience.com/planet-earth/climate-change/which-islands-will-become-uninhabitable-due-to-climate-change-first

[4] https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2023/apr/27/human-driven-climate-crisis-fuelling-horn-of-africa-drought-study

[5] https://www.worldvision.org/hunger-news-stories/africa-hunger-famine-facts

[6] https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/africa-suffers-disproportionately-from-climate-change

[7] https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/africa-suffers-disproportionately-from-climate-change

[8] https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/30/africas-fragile-states-are-greatest-climate-change-casualties?

[9] https://www.cdp.net/en/research/global-reports/africa-report

[10] https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/africa-suffers-disproportionately-from-climate-change

[11] https://www.statista.com/statistics/1300864/gdp-value-per-capita-in-africa/

[12] https://library.wmo.int/records/item/67761-state-of-the-climate-in-africa-2022

[13] https://wmo.int/news/media-centre/africa-suffers-disproportionately-from-climate-change

[14] https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/30/africas-fragile-states-are-greatest-climate-change-casualties?

[15] https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/30/africas-fragile-states-are-greatest-climate-change-casualties?

[16] https://www.iea.org/commentaries/a-new-energy-pact-for-africa?

[17] https://www.iea.org/reports/financing-clean-energy-in-africa

[18] https://www.iea.org/reports/africa-energy-outlook-2022

[19] https://www.iea.org/commentaries/a-new-energy-pact-for-africa?

[20] https://www.iea.org/reports/financing-clean-energy-in-africa

[21] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/05/climate-change-djibouti-multi-peril-insurance/

[22] https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2023/05/climate-change-djibouti-multi-peril-insurance/

[23] https://theconversation.com/climate-change-will-force-up-to-113m-people-to-relocate-within-africa-by-2050-193633

[24] https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/08/30/africas-fragile-states-are-greatest-climate-change-casualties?

[25] https://www.iea.org/commentaries/a-new-energy-pact-for-africa?

[26] https://www.oxfam.org/en/press-releases/over-20-million-more-people-hungry-africas-year-nutrition

[27] https://www.agtechnavigator.com/Article/2024/06/24/early-warning-systems-eliminate-hunger-so-why-the-lack-of-investment

[28] https://www.communityjameel.org/news/university-of-edinburgh-renews-partnership-with-international-livestock-research-institute

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