Is climate change an existential threat?  Undoubtedly, for those who’ve already fallen victim.  Around 3.6 billion people already live in areas highly susceptible to climate change.[1]  In the last two decades, heat-related deaths among over 65s alone have risen 70%.[2]  The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s (IPCC) Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) concluded that climate risks are appearing faster than ever.[3]  According to World Bank data, a warmer climate could lead to at least 21 million additional deaths by 2050, from just five health risks: extreme heat, stunting, diarrhea, malaria, and dengue fever.[4]  Many more will live to suffer the consequences.

Inescapable harm for millions?

Climate change’s direct cost to health is expected to range from US$ 2-4 billion annually by 2030.[5]  A changing climate increases the seriousness or frequency of existing health problems and creates new ones – both directly and indirectly.  It poses short and long-term health risks, while negatively impacting the systems people rely on for good health, from food and water to livelihoods, communities, healthcare, and the economy.  This makes it a deadly threat multiplier.

Climate-change related health impacts include:

  1. Injury and fatality from extreme weather events.
    Storms, floods, wildfires, and droughts put lives at risk.  They can also prevent people from accessing care, particularly vulnerable populations such as pregnant women, children, older adults, or people with chronic illnesses, as well as exacerbating other health risks.
  1. Heat-related illness.
    In 2023, the world saw the highest global temperatures in over 100,000 years.[6]  Exposure to extreme or prolonged heat can cause exhaustion, heat stroke, kidney and heart disease, and pregnancy complications.[7]  Some 37% of heat-related deaths are due to anthropogenic climate change.[8]  At the current warming trajectory, annual heat-related deaths will increase by 370% by midcentury.[9]
  2. Respiratory illness.
    Climate-related extreme weather and heat, including wildfires and dust, usually worsen air quality, which has a negative impact on respiratory illnesses.[10]  Droughts cause dust, while hot weather can increase harmful ground-level ozone[11] and flooding can lead to dangerous bacteria and mold.[12]  Poor air quality raises risks for heart disease and stroke, asthma and other respiratory diseases, pregnancy complications, and some cancers.[13],[14]  Children and people with existing health conditions are especially vulnerable.
  3. Water-borne health risks.
    World Health Organization (WHO) data indicates that 2 billion people lack safe drinking water.[15]  Increased rainfall, storms, and flooding can contaminate water resources with viruses and bacteria, causing gastrointestinal and other illnesses.[16]  Rising temperatures can lead to algal blooms, which produce harmful toxins.[17]
  4. Vector-borne diseases and zoonoses.
    Warmer, wetter environments create favorable conditions for disease vectors, which carry diseases themselves and can transmit them from other animals to humans.  Disease vectors currently account for over 700,000 deaths annually.[18]  For example, mosquito and tick species are gaining footholds in Europe and other parts of the world, carrying West Nile and Usutu viruses.[19]  By midcentury, coastlines supporting vibrio pathogens are estimated to expand by 17%–25%, with 36%–37% increased dengue transmission.[20]
  5. Food, water, and sanitation.
    Climate change is damaging water security, food production, and sanitation.  The global land area impacted by extreme drought has increased from 18% in 1951–60 to 47% in 2013–22, putting millions of people at risk of malnutrition and potentially irreversible health effects.[21]  A warmer climate may extend some crop cycles. However, it may also limit biodiversity and increase pests.[22]
  6. Mental and psychosocial health.
    Climate change can trigger or intensify anxiety, depression, and post-traumatic stress.  In addition to job instability, natural disasters, and displacement can disrupt social cohesion and support networks, leading to increased drug use and violence.[23]

Who is most at risk?

An individual’s vulnerability to climate change depends on numerous factors, including geography, demographics, health and biology, sociopolitical and socioeconomic status, health system capacity, and gender.

High-risk populations[24] include:

  • Children
  • Socially vulnerable people
  • Indigenous populations
  • Older adults
  • People with chronic medical conditions
  • People with disabilities
  • Workers
  • Pregnant, breastfeeding, and postpartum women

The US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) has defined an assessment framework that identifies three key factors that determine an individual’s climate change vulnerability:

  1. Exposure:
    People will encounter climate hazards differently.  Exposure will depend on where and how long people spend time and what they do.  For example, people who spend a lot of time outdoors may be more exposed to extreme heat.
  2. Sensitivity:
    Some people are more sensitive than others to climate hazards due to factors like age and health.  For example, children and adults with asthma are highly susceptible to air pollutants and wildfire smoke.
  3. Adaptive capacity:
    People can adjust to, take advantage of, or respond to climate change hazards.  A person’s ability to adapt may depend upon their income, age, living situation, access to health care, and many other factors.

Disadvantaged individuals and low-income countries at highest risk

Education, employment status, gender, and ethnicity strongly correlate to health.[25]  Climate change threatens to widen preexisting health inequalities between and within populations.

According to a paper published by the UN, it does so in three ways:

  1. by increasing the exposure of disadvantaged groups to climate hazards
  2. increasing their susceptibility to related damage
  3. and decreasing their ability to cope and recover[26]

Over the last decade, the death rate from extreme weather events alone was 15 times higher in vulnerable regions.[27]  Most of these populations typically include low-income countries and small island states.

According to the WHO, “the people whose health is being harmed first and worst by the climate crisis are the people who contribute least to its causes, and who are least able to protect themselves and their families against it: people in low-income and disadvantaged countries and communities.”[28]

Inadequate access to healthcare compounds the problem

Some 930 million people spend at least 10% of their household budget on healthcare – with health costs pushing 100 million into poverty every year.[29]

The World Meteorological Organization estimates that 30% of people worldwide cannot access essential health services, and 2 billion people face the consequences of impoverished health spending.[30]  In an international Lancet study, 27% of surveyed cities were concerned their health systems were being overwhelmed by the effects of climate change.[31]

Poor health limits people’s ability to work, which has a knock-on effect on the economy and the ability to provide healthcare.  Extreme weather events cost economies US$ 264 billion alone and increased by 23% between 2010–14 and 2018–22.[32]  A World Bank study estimates climate change may push an additional 132 million people into extreme poverty by 2030, with 44 million due to health impacts.[33]  More than half of those affected live in Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia.

What can be done?

Immediate resilience and adaptation measures are essential to protect high-risk populations.  At the same time, continued, long-term progress must occur to reduce emissions and prevent temperatures from exceeding dangerous thresholds—ideally limiting the average temperature rise to 1.5°C.

Time to pay

It’s only fair for the developed world to bear most of the cost.  Thus far, however, the wealthiest countries have consistently failed to deliver the annual US$ 100 billion needed to support climate action in those countries, as defined by the Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Transition to clean energy

Reducing dependence on dirty fuels could reduce the 1.9 million deaths due to air pollution – while providing employment opportunities.  Globally, over half a billion people still live without electricity, and almost 1 billion depend on healthcare facilities that do not provide reliable energy.[34]  In low human development index (HDI) countries, just 2.3% of electricity comes from modern renewables, and over 9 in 10 households still use biomass, compared to 11% and 7.5%, respectively, in high HDI countries.[35]

However, good progress has been made.  Deaths due to fossil-fuel-derived air pollution are down by 15.7% since 2005 – most of which are due to moving away from coal.[36]  Furthermore, in 2022, renewable electricity accounted for 90% of the growth in electricity capacity, and global clean energy investment hit US$ 1.6 trillion, exceeding fossil fuel investment by 61%,[37] which suggests things are heading in the right direction.

In addition to transitioning to cleaner energy production, the global community can support:

  • Green transport:
    Fossil fuels still account for 95% of road transportation, presenting a massive opportunity for further progress.[38]
  • More efficient buildings and spaces:
    Creating more green and blue spaces and reducing dependence on air conditioning will boost mental and physical health.
  • Incentivizing lifestyle changes:
    Encouraging people to use public transport and exercise more can help reduce the 460,000 deaths caused annually by transport-related pollution and the 3.2 million deaths attributed to physical inactivity.[39]
  • Cutting carbon from diets:
    Food production and distribution accounts for 30% of global greenhouse gas emissions.  In particular, 57% of agricultural emissions in 2020 were derived from the production of red meat and milk.  Promoting affordable access to healthier, low-carbon diets can improve health while lowering climate impact.[40]

Improve public health and ensure fairer access to healthcare

Health inequities lead to decreased productivity, reduced tax contributions, increased welfare payouts, and higher public healthcare expenditures.  The European Parliament estimates that health inequities cost around 1.4% of the EU’s GDP – nearly as much as its combined defense spending.[41]

Improving water and sanitation are obvious remedies.  Similarly, childhood vaccination against common climate-related threats such as diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus strongly correlates with higher life expectancy.[42]

Ultimately, although universal health coverage (UHC) may carry a high upfront cost, it should repay the investment in the long run – helping people live longer, healthier, more productive lives.

Healthcare: leading by example

Healthcare creates around 5% of global greenhouse gas emissions.[43]  The WHO is identifying opportunities to decarbonize high-emitting health systems and incorporate environmental sustainability into investments.[44]   Clean energy for infrastructure, fleets, and low-carbon medicines and equipment are good places to start.  Meanwhile, The World Bank is helping health systems boost resilience by building climate-informed surveillance and early-warning systems, increasing health workforce capacity in climate health, and climate-proofing healthcare infrastructure.[45]

Global coalitions

By working together, stakeholders in the global healthcare ecosystem can help to implement cross-sectoral initiatives to address some of the worst impacts of climate-related adverse health outcomes.

The WHO already partners with the global health sector to embed health priorities like UHC and carbon neutrality by 2030.  It harnesses a worldwide network of experts to monitor climate change and progress to inform effective policies.  It also leads the Alliance for Transformative Action on Climate and Health (ATACH) and trains partners and governments to support their commitments to low-carbon health systems.[46]

The World Bank, meanwhile, is the largest climate investor and funder of health systems.  As part of its Climate and Health Program, the organization is building climate considerations into its US$ 34 billion health portfolio, active in over 100 countries. Around 80% of investments are allocated to adaptation interventions, including nutrition support, surveillance systems, and emergency response centers.[47]

In Madagascar, for example, around 3 million children have benefitted from targeted investments to expand food security for those most vulnerable to climate change.  Surveillance and early-warning systems are helping Yemen and Haiti to detect cholera and other climate-sensitive disease outbreaks, while in Nagaland (India), the World Bank has secured reliable energy for 175 health facilities via off-grid solar power.[48]

The UN’s Race to Zero comprises 77 healthcare institutions, both public and private, committed to achieving net zero emissions by 2050, with corresponding interim targets.[49]

The Extreme Heat Resilience Alliance (EHRA), an alliance of over 60 organizations, aims to enhance the resilience of 500 million vulnerable people, including women, by 2030 with solutions like parametric insurance, early warning systems, and shade structures to mitigate the effects of extreme heat.  Projects in India and Sierra Leone directly benefited more than 2,300 women, and the alliance has the potential to help more than 2 million people in the near future.[50]

Sanitation Water for All (SWA) is the largest global coalition advocating water-sanitation-hygiene (WASH).  During 2023, SWA provided technical assistance to Burkina Faso, Bangladesh, Chad, Dominican Republic, Fiji, Mexico, Nicaragua, Nepal, Nigeria, and Peru, and the Secretariat of the Community of Lusophone Speaking Countries.[51]

Healthy progress prepares for the worst

Commercial businesses have a role to play, particularly the largest ones.  Over the next 10 years, multinational pharmaceutical and biotechnology company GSK, for example, plans to invest more than half of its £1 billion global health R&D budget in climate-aggravated diseases that disproportionately impact lower-income countries.

Closer to home, the Jameel Family is also supporting organizations and initiatives working in both climate change and health.

In 2019, Community Jameel partnered with Imperial College London to establish the Jameel Institute, (or the Abdul Latif Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics).  It’s a rapid response research center for predicting and preventing global health crises.  It also acts as a hub for leading data scientists, epidemiologists, biostatisticians and aid workers to collaborate in addressing the healthcare challenges facing our increasingly climate-affected world.

The Jameel Institute complements the work of Community Jameel’s other global health collaboration, The Abdul Latif Jameel Clinic for Machine Learning in Health, or Jameel Clinic, founded in partnership with MIT.  The Jameel Clinic focuses on how machine learning can prevent, detect and treat non-infectious debilitating conditions such as cancer, sepsis, dementia and other neurological disorders.

Jameel Health, meanwhile, partners with innovative healthcare solutions providers across the globe to drive health inclusivity, particularly in the global south.  Earlier this year Jameel Health also acquired Genpharm, the regional leader for rare diseases with market access across the Middle East, North Africa and Türkiye.  The agreement marks a significant milestone for both businesses as they work together in accelerating access to modern medical care for those who need it most.

On the climate side, Fotowatio Renewable Ventures (FRV), the flagship renewable energy business of Jameel Energy, manages a portfolio of wind, solar, hybrid and storage projects across Asia, Latin America, Europe and Australia.

Meanwhile, FRV’s innovation arm, FRV-X, aims to usher in the kind of next-generation technological solutions that can elevate COP28’s ambitious climate goals from drawing boards to reality.  In particular, it operates utility-scale Battery Energy Storage System (BESS) plants in the UK at Contego, West Sussex; Holes Bay, Dorset; and the joint largest operational BESS in Europe at Clay Tye, Essex, as well as having a majority share in a BESS scheme in Greece.  Further UK facilities are in the pipeline.

In Australia, FRV-X operates a hybrid solar and BESS plant at Dalby in the eastern state of Queensland, and in February 2024 it partnered with AMP Tank Finland Oy for a utility-scale battery energy storage system (BESS) project in Finland.  In addition, FRV-X has partnered with ecoligo, a German ‘solar-as-a-service’ provider, with a US$ 10.6 million investment.  Founded in 2016, ecoligo helps commercial and industrial partners in South America, Africa and Asia fund solar projects via a crowd investment platform.

Similarly, Almar Water Solutions, part of Jameel Environmental Services, works to improve access to clean water and sanitation through a portfolio of sustainable water infrastructure projects across Europe, the Middle East, Latin America, Africa, and Asia-Pacific.  Globally, around 1,000 Almar employees work across more than 150 separate water contracts – places like the Shuqaiq 3 desalination plant on the Red Sea coast in Saudi Arabia, one of the largest reverse osmosis desalination plants in the world, and the state-of-the-art Muharraq wastewater treatment plant in Bahrain, which recycles treated used water into high-grade reclaimed water.

In March 2024, Almar Water Solutions broke ground on a new project in Saudi Arabia, the Zuluf Water Treatment Plant, which will boast a substantial capacity of 185,000 m3/day, contributing significantly to sustainable water solutions in Saudi Arabia.  While in Europe, Spanish technology firm Datakorum, a key partner of Almar Water Solutions, helps transform water use into smart data, ultimately helping to increase efficiency and save vital natural resources.  Almar Water Solutions has also established a joint venture with Hassan Allam Utilities in Egypt to form AA Water Developments, with the aim of revitalizing the country’s water infrastructure.  This led to the acquisition of Ridgewood Group in Egypt, a major desalination services company.  Ridgewood operates 58 desalination plants throughout the country, with the capacity to provide 82,440 cubic meters of safe, clean drinking water every day.

Fady Jameel, Deputy President and Vice Chairman, Abdul Latif Jam
Fady Jameel
Vice Chairman, International
Abdul Latif Jameel

“The world will get warmer – and deadlier.  How warm depends on what happens now. However, limiting emissions won’t be enough: health and public health systems, together with food and water production, must prioritize resilience and adaptability to protect the world’s most vulnerable from the worst effects of climate change,” says Fady Jameel, Deputy President & Vice Chairman, International, Abdul Latif Jameel.

 

[1] https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/

[2] https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health

[3] https://www.ipcc.ch/assessment-report/ar6/

[4] https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/health/brief/health-and-climate-change

[5] https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health

[6] https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicus-2023-hottest-year-record

[7] https://www.epa.gov/climateimpacts/climate-change-impacts-health#9foot; https://www.epa.gov/climateimpacts/climate-change-impacts-health#10foot

[8] https://www.nature.com/articles/s41558-021-01058-x

[9] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)01859-7/abstract

[10] https://www.epa.gov/climateimpacts/climate-change-impacts-air-quality

[11] https://www.epa.gov/ground-level-ozone-pollution

[12] https://www.epa.gov/climateimpacts/climate-change-impacts-health#19foot

[13] https://www.epa.gov/climateimpacts/climate-change-impacts-health#20foot

[14] https://www.epa.gov/climateimpacts/climate-change-impacts-health#21foot

[15] https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health

[16] https://www.epa.gov/climateimpacts/climate-change-impacts-health#13foot

[17] https://www.epa.gov/habs

[18] https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health

[19] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC8776135/

[20] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)01859-7/abstract

[21] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)01859-7/abstract

[22] https://www.epa.gov/climateimpacts/climate-change-impacts-health#15foot

[23] https://www.epa.gov/climateimpacts/climate-change-impacts-health#28foot

[24] https://www.epa.gov/climateimpacts/climate-change-and-human-health

[25] https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6392452/

[26] https://www.un.org/esa/desa/papers/2017/wp152_2017.pdf

[27] https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health

[28] https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health

[29] https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health

[30] https://wmo.int/publication-series/2023-state-of-climate-services-health

[31] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)01859-7/abstract

[32] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)01859-7/abstract

[33] https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/server/api/core/bitstreams/ad7eeab7-d3d8-567d-b804-59d620c3ab37/content

[34] https://www.who.int/news/item/14-01-2023-close-to-one-billion-people-globally-are-served-by-health-care-facilities-with-no-electricity-access-or-with-unreliable-electricity

[35] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)01859-7/abstract

[36] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)01859-7/abstract

[37] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)01859-7/abstract

[38] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)01859-7/abstract

[39] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)01859-7/abstract

[40] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(23)01859-7/abstract

[41] https://intelligence.weforum.org/topics/a1GTG0000000gLp2AI/key-issues/a1GTG0000000qt32AA

[42] https://intelligence.weforum.org/topics/a1GTG0000000gLp2AI/key-issues/a1GTG0000000qt32AA

[43] https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/health/brief/health-and-climate-change

[44] https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health

[45] https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/health/brief/health-and-climate-chang

[46] https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/climate-change-and-health

[47] https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/health/brief/health-and-climate-change

[48] https://www.worldbank.org/en/topic/health/brief/health-and-climate-change

[49] https://climatechampions.unfccc.int/un-climate-change-high-level-champions/

[50] https://onebillionresilient.org/project/extreme-heat-resilience-alliance/

[51] https://www.sanitationandwaterforall.org/